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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

Cancer-Risk Benefits Of Clean Fuel Technology And Policy: A Statistical Analysis, Paul Gallagher, William Lazarus, Hosein Shapouri, Roger Conway, James Duffield Dec 2009

Cancer-Risk Benefits Of Clean Fuel Technology And Policy: A Statistical Analysis, Paul Gallagher, William Lazarus, Hosein Shapouri, Roger Conway, James Duffield

Economics Publications

The hypothesis of this study is that there is a statistical relationship between the lung cancer mortality rate and the intensity of fuel consumption (measured in gallons/square mile) at a particular location. We estimate cross-section regressions of the mortality rate due to lung cancer against the intensity of fuel consumption using local data for the entire US, before the US Clean Air Act (CAA) in 1974 and after the most recent policy revisions in 2004. The cancer rate improvement estimate suggests that up to 10 lung cancer deaths per 100,000 residents are avoided in the largest urban areas ...


The Impact Of Biofuels Policy On Agribusiness Stock Prices, Fatma Sine Tepe, Xiaodong Du, David A. Hennessy Sep 2009

The Impact Of Biofuels Policy On Agribusiness Stock Prices, Fatma Sine Tepe, Xiaodong Du, David A. Hennessy

CARD Working Papers

Corn markets are important for many industries, including the seed, fertilizer, meat production/processing and agricultural machinery sectors, all of which are highly concentrated. Oligopoly theory suggests that corn input and field equipment suppliers likely benefit from policies that support corn markets, such as U.S. biofuels policy, while meat companies are likely adversely affected. Employing a linear two-factor (S&P 500 and corn prices) equilibrium asset pricing model, this study investigates the impact of biofuels policy on U.S. agribusiness and food processing firm stock prices. Conditional heteroskedasticity in stock returns is accounted for using a GARCH(1,1 ...


Dynamics Of Biofuel Stock Prices: A Bayesian Approach, Xiaodong Du, Dermot J. Hayes, Cindy L. Yu Sep 2009

Dynamics Of Biofuel Stock Prices: A Bayesian Approach, Xiaodong Du, Dermot J. Hayes, Cindy L. Yu

CARD Working Papers

We use Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to investigate the linkage between the volatility of ethanol security prices and the uncertainty surrounding the profitability of ethanol production and the price variations of non-ethanol energy securities. The joint evolution of return and volatility is modeled as a stochastic process that incorporates jumps in both return and volatility. While a strong and significant correlation is found between the volatility of ethanol securities and profit uncertainty from June 2005 to July 2008, the dynamic pattern of ethanol stock volatility is strikingly similar to that of the S&P 500 energy sector index ...


Impacts Of Agricultural Expansion On Surface Runoff: A Case Study Of A River Basin In The Brazilian Legal Amazon, E. E. Maeda, A. R. Formaggio, Y. E. Shimabukuro, Amy L. Kaleita Sep 2009

Impacts Of Agricultural Expansion On Surface Runoff: A Case Study Of A River Basin In The Brazilian Legal Amazon, E. E. Maeda, A. R. Formaggio, Y. E. Shimabukuro, Amy L. Kaleita

Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering Publications

This work presents an analysis of the Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes of a region in the Brazilian Legal Amazon, and an evaluation of their impacts on the surface runoff regime. This case study took place at the Suiá-Miçu River basin, located in the northeast region of Mato Grosso State. LULC maps were produced for the years 1973, 1984 and 2005 using remote sensing data. After analyzing the agricultural expansion in the study area, the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment Tool (AGWA) was applied in performing the surface runoff modeling for each of the analyzed years using the SCS ...


The 2007/08 Iowa Grain And Biofuel Flow Study: A Survey Report, Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu, Chad E. Hart Aug 2009

The 2007/08 Iowa Grain And Biofuel Flow Study: A Survey Report, Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu, Chad E. Hart

CARD Staff Reports

Driven by the expanding production of biofuels, the linkage between the agricultural and energy markets is evolving, and that has changed the market for agricultural commodities dramatically. These developments in agricultural markets consequently shifted the distribution of domestic grains and feeds and the utilization of shipping modes for these agricultural products. As the leading producer of corn, soybeans, and biofuels, Iowa is at the forefront of this shift. Because of the importance of maintaining an adequate state transportation system to accommodate the evolving patterns of grain and biofuel flows, it is important to have current information about grain flows from ...


Biofuels: Potential Production Capacity, Effects On Grain And Livestock Sectors, And Implications For Food Prices And Consumers, Dermot J. Hayes, Bruce Babcock, Jacinto F. Fabiosa, Simla Tokgoz, Amani Elobeid, Tun-Hsiang E. Yu, Fengxia Dong, Chad Hart, Eddie Chavez, Suwen Pan, Miguel Carriquiry, Jerome R. Florian-Dumortier Aug 2009

Biofuels: Potential Production Capacity, Effects On Grain And Livestock Sectors, And Implications For Food Prices And Consumers, Dermot J. Hayes, Bruce Babcock, Jacinto F. Fabiosa, Simla Tokgoz, Amani Elobeid, Tun-Hsiang E. Yu, Fengxia Dong, Chad Hart, Eddie Chavez, Suwen Pan, Miguel Carriquiry, Jerome R. Florian-Dumortier

Economics Publications

We examine four scenarios for the evolution of the biofuel sector using a partial equilibrium model of the world agricultural sector. The model includes the new Renewable Fuels Standard in the 2007 energy act, the two-way relationship between fossil energy and biofuel markets, and a new trend toward corn oil extraction in ethanol plants. At one extreme, one scenario eliminates all support to the biofuel sector when the energy price is low, while the other extreme assumes no distribution bottleneck in ethanol demand growth when the energy price is high. Of the remaining two scenarios, one considers a pure market ...


Land Retirement Program Design In The Presence Of Crop Insurance Subsidies, David A. Hennessy Jul 2009

Land Retirement Program Design In The Presence Of Crop Insurance Subsidies, David A. Hennessy

CARD Working Papers

The U.S. federal government implements environmental, biofuels and crop insurance programs that influence land use. They are not well integrated in that cost savings from crop insurance subsidies are not acknowledged when screening land for retirement or when calculating the cost of land retirement programs. We identify and evaluate an optimal benefit index for enrollment in a land retirement program that includes a sub-index to rank land according to insurance subsidy savings. All else equal, land ranked higher in the Lorenz stochastic order should be retired first.


Sensitivity Of Carbon Emission Estimates From Indirect Land-Use Change, Jerome R. F. Dumortier, Dermot J. Hayes, Miguel Carriquiry, Fengxia Dong, Xiaodong Du, Amani E. Elobeid, Jacinto F. Fabiosa, Simla Tokgoz Jul 2009

Sensitivity Of Carbon Emission Estimates From Indirect Land-Use Change, Jerome R. F. Dumortier, Dermot J. Hayes, Miguel Carriquiry, Fengxia Dong, Xiaodong Du, Amani E. Elobeid, Jacinto F. Fabiosa, Simla Tokgoz

CARD Working Papers

We analyze the sensitivity of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land-use change to modifications in assumptions concerning crop area, yield, and deforestation. For this purpose, we run a modified version of the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Agricultural Outlook Model, which was used previously to assess the impacts of energy price increases and biofuel policy changes on land conversion. To calculate the GHG implications of agricultural activity, we use GreenAgSiM, a model developed to evaluate emissions from land conversion and agricultural production. Both models are applied to scenarios that lead to higher US ethanol production. The results are ...


Speculation And Volatility Spillover In The Crude Oil And Agricultural Commodity Markets: A Bayesian Analysis, Xiaodong Du, Cindy L. Yu, Dermot J. Hayes May 2009

Speculation And Volatility Spillover In The Crude Oil And Agricultural Commodity Markets: A Bayesian Analysis, Xiaodong Du, Cindy L. Yu, Dermot J. Hayes

CARD Working Papers

This paper assesses the roles of various factors influencing the volatility of crude oil prices and the possible linkage between this volatility and agricultural commodity markets. Stochastic volatility models are applied to weekly crude oil, corn, and wheat futures prices from November 1998 to January 2009. Model parameters are estimated using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The main results are as follows. Speculation, scalping, and petroleum inventories are found to be important in explaining oil price variation. Several properties of crude oil price dynamics are established, including mean-reversion, a negative correlation between price and volatility, volatility clustering, and infrequent ...


Towards An Integrated Global Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Model: Greenhouse Gases From Agriculture Simulation Model (Greenagsim), Jerome R. F. Dumortier, Dermot J. Hayes May 2009

Towards An Integrated Global Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Model: Greenhouse Gases From Agriculture Simulation Model (Greenagsim), Jerome R. F. Dumortier, Dermot J. Hayes

CARD Working Papers

The Greenhouse Gases from Agriculture Simulation Model (GreenAgSiM) presented in this paper aims to quantify emissions from agricultural activity on a global scale. The model takes emissions into account that are directly attributable to agricultural production, such as enteric fermentation (methane), manure management (methane and nitrous oxide), and agricultural soil management (nitrous oxide). Furthermore, carbon stock differences from land-use change (carbon dioxide) induced by agriculture are included in the model. The model will provide policy makers with information about the greenhouse gas implications of policy changes.


Land-Use Credits To Corn Ethanol: Accounting For Distillers Dried Grains With Solubles As A Feed Substitute In Swine Rations, Jacinto F. Fabiosa Apr 2009

Land-Use Credits To Corn Ethanol: Accounting For Distillers Dried Grains With Solubles As A Feed Substitute In Swine Rations, Jacinto F. Fabiosa

CARD Working Papers

Many studies on the impact of biofuels on greenhouse gas emissions do not consider indirect land-use change and land use avoided because of co-products utilization. This paper provides estimates of the land-use credit for corn ethanol when its by-product—distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS)—is used in swine feed rations to substitute for corn and soymeal. The range of estimates used here covers the land-use credit used in the literature. Moreover, this study departs from earlier studies because feed rations from a least-cost optimization are used rather than rations from feeding trials, and DDGS nutrient profile variability is fully ...


Biofuels: Potential Production Capacity, Effects On Grain And Livestock Sectors, And Implications For Food Prices And Consumers, Dermot J. Hayes, Bruce A. Babcock, Jacinto F. Fabiosa, Simla Tokgoz, Amani E. Elobeid, Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu, Fengxia Dong, Chad E. Hart, Eddie Chavez, Suwen Pan, Miguel Carriquiry, Jerome R. F. Dumortier Mar 2009

Biofuels: Potential Production Capacity, Effects On Grain And Livestock Sectors, And Implications For Food Prices And Consumers, Dermot J. Hayes, Bruce A. Babcock, Jacinto F. Fabiosa, Simla Tokgoz, Amani E. Elobeid, Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu, Fengxia Dong, Chad E. Hart, Eddie Chavez, Suwen Pan, Miguel Carriquiry, Jerome R. F. Dumortier

CARD Working Papers

We examine four scenarios for the evolution of the biofuel sector using a partial equilibrium model of the world agricultural sector. The model includes the new Renewable Fuels Standard in the 2007 energy act, the two-way relationship between fossil energy and biofuel markets, and a new trend toward corn oil extraction in ethanol plants. At one extreme, one scenario eliminates all support to the biofuel sector when the energy price is low, while the other extreme assumes no distribution bottleneck in ethanol demand growth when the energy price is high. Of the remaining two scenarios, one considers a pure market ...


Land Allocation Effects Of The Global Ethanol Surge: Predictions From The International Fapri Model, Jacinto F. Fabiosa, John C. Beghin, Fengxia Dong, Amani E. Elobeid, Simla Tokgoz, Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu Mar 2009

Land Allocation Effects Of The Global Ethanol Surge: Predictions From The International Fapri Model, Jacinto F. Fabiosa, John C. Beghin, Fengxia Dong, Amani E. Elobeid, Simla Tokgoz, Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu

CARD Working Papers

We quantify the emergence of biofuel markets and its impact on U.S. and world agriculture for the coming decade using the multi-market, multi-commodity international FAPRI (Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute) model. The model incorporates the trade-offs between biofuel, feed, and food production and consumption and international feedback effects of the emergence through world commodity prices and trade. We examine land allocation by type of crop, and pasture use for countries growing feedstock for ethanol (corn, sorghum, wheat, sugarcane, and other grains) and major crops competing with feedstock for land resources such as oilseeds. We shock the model with ...


The Impact Of Energy Markets On The Eu Agricultural Sector, Simla Tokgoz Jan 2009

The Impact Of Energy Markets On The Eu Agricultural Sector, Simla Tokgoz

CARD Working Papers

The objective of this study is to analyze the impact of crude oil prices on the EU agricultural sector in an era when the biofuels sector is expanding because of policy initiatives and the desire to find alternative fuel sources. To this end, first a baseline is set up for the EU ethanol, grain, and dried distillers grains markets. In the next step, two different scenarios are run. The first scenario incorporates a 10-Euros-per-barrel increase in the EU crude oil price with the ethanol import tariffs in place. The second scenario incorporates the same shock with the ethanol import tariffs ...


Improving Sustainability Of The Corn-Ethanol Industry, Paul W. Gallagher, Hosein Shapouri Jan 2009

Improving Sustainability Of The Corn-Ethanol Industry, Paul W. Gallagher, Hosein Shapouri

Economics Publications

Two criteria based on characteristics of plant growth establish when bio-fuels can provide sustainable energy for society. The first criteria: enough solar energy stored during plant growth becomes available for man's use. Pimentel's early evaluation of the US ethanol industry calculated the ratio of BTUs in ethanol: BTUs from fossil energy of com and ethanol production at less than one. He concluded that ethanol is not sustainable energy, and questioned the industry's existence. Recent energy balance ratios that include adjustments for co-product feed and higher energy efficiency in corn/ethanol production suggest a moderate contribution from captured ...


Roles For Evolving Markets, Policies, And Technology Improvements In U.S. Corn Ethanol Industry Development, Paul W. Gallagher Jan 2009

Roles For Evolving Markets, Policies, And Technology Improvements In U.S. Corn Ethanol Industry Development, Paul W. Gallagher

Economics Publications

This article reviews changes in markets, technologies, and policies that affect corn ethanol profit - ability and industry expansion. Historically, the corn ethanol industry was stimulated by high petrofuel prices, successful corn and processing technology improvements, and government incentives, such as a blenders’ tax credit and mandated markets defined by the leaded fuel ban and reformulated fuel. Presently, the corn ethanol industry has expanded slightly beyond the point of a normal capital return, which is defined by limits on corn resource availability and ethanol marketing infrastructure. A renewable fuel standard, included in a recent energy law, may eventually define minimum consumption ...