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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

The Impact Of The National School Lunch Program On Child Health: A Nonparametric Bounds Analysis, Craig Gundersen, Brent Kreider, John Pepper Dec 2009

The Impact Of The National School Lunch Program On Child Health: A Nonparametric Bounds Analysis, Craig Gundersen, Brent Kreider, John Pepper

Economics Working Papers (2002–2016)

Children in households reporting the receipt of free or reduced price school meals through the National School Lunch Program (NSLP) are more likely to have negative health outcomes than eligible nonparticipants. Assessing the causal effects of the program is made difficult, however, by the presence of endogenous selection into the program and systematic misreporting of participation status. Using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), we extend and apply partial identification methods to account for these two identification problems in a single unifying framework. Similar to a regression discontinuity design, we introduce a new way to conceptualize ...


Cancer-Risk Benefits Of Clean Fuel Technology And Policy: A Statistical Analysis, Paul Gallagher, William Lazarus, Hosein Shapouri, Roger Conway, James Duffield Dec 2009

Cancer-Risk Benefits Of Clean Fuel Technology And Policy: A Statistical Analysis, Paul Gallagher, William Lazarus, Hosein Shapouri, Roger Conway, James Duffield

Economics Publications

The hypothesis of this study is that there is a statistical relationship between the lung cancer mortality rate and the intensity of fuel consumption (measured in gallons/square mile) at a particular location. We estimate cross-section regressions of the mortality rate due to lung cancer against the intensity of fuel consumption using local data for the entire US, before the US Clean Air Act (CAA) in 1974 and after the most recent policy revisions in 2004. The cancer rate improvement estimate suggests that up to 10 lung cancer deaths per 100,000 residents are avoided in the largest urban areas ...


Does Local School Control Raise Student Outcomes? Evidence On The Roles Of School Autonomy And Parental Participation, Victoria Gunnarsson, Peter F. Orazem, Mario A. Sanchez, Aimee Verdisco Oct 2009

Does Local School Control Raise Student Outcomes? Evidence On The Roles Of School Autonomy And Parental Participation, Victoria Gunnarsson, Peter F. Orazem, Mario A. Sanchez, Aimee Verdisco

Economics Publications

As early as 1962, international agencies such as the United Nations and the World Bank were advising that the decentralization of public service delivery could serve as a development strategy. The strategy has become even more prominent over the past 15 years, particularly in education.1 Decentralization efforts in developed countries include various programs in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Spain, the United Kingdom, and in at least 44 states in the United States. Among the developing countries, Burkina Faso, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, El Salvador, Honduras, India, and Nicaragua have introduced new programs aimed at devolving power to the local schools ...


Dynamics Of Biofuel Stock Prices: A Bayesian Approach, Xiaodong Du, Dermot J. Hayes, Cindy L. Yu Sep 2009

Dynamics Of Biofuel Stock Prices: A Bayesian Approach, Xiaodong Du, Dermot J. Hayes, Cindy L. Yu

CARD Working Papers

We use Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to investigate the linkage between the volatility of ethanol security prices and the uncertainty surrounding the profitability of ethanol production and the price variations of non-ethanol energy securities. The joint evolution of return and volatility is modeled as a stochastic process that incorporates jumps in both return and volatility. While a strong and significant correlation is found between the volatility of ethanol securities and profit uncertainty from June 2005 to July 2008, the dynamic pattern of ethanol stock volatility is strikingly similar to that of the S&P 500 energy sector index ...


Bounding The Effects Of Food Insecurity On Children’S Health Outcomes, Craig Gundersen, Brent Kreider Sep 2009

Bounding The Effects Of Food Insecurity On Children’S Health Outcomes, Craig Gundersen, Brent Kreider

Economics Publications

Previous research has estimated that food insecure children are more likely to suffer from a wide array of negative health outcomes than food secure children, leading many to claim that alleviating food insecurity would lead to better health outcomes. Identifying the causal impacts is problematic, however, given endogenous selection into food security status and potential mismeasurement of true food security status. Using recently developed nonparametric bounding methods and data from the 2001-2006 National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (NHANES), we assess what can be identified about the effects of food insecurity on child health outcomes in the presence of nonrandom ...


Biofuels: Potential Production Capacity, Effects On Grain And Livestock Sectors, And Implications For Food Prices And Consumers, Dermot J. Hayes, Bruce Babcock, Jacinto F. Fabiosa, Simla Tokgoz, Amani Elobeid, Tun-Hsiang E. Yu, Fengxia Dong, Chad Hart, Eddie Chavez, Suwen Pan, Miguel Carriquiry, Jerome R. Florian-Dumortier Aug 2009

Biofuels: Potential Production Capacity, Effects On Grain And Livestock Sectors, And Implications For Food Prices And Consumers, Dermot J. Hayes, Bruce Babcock, Jacinto F. Fabiosa, Simla Tokgoz, Amani Elobeid, Tun-Hsiang E. Yu, Fengxia Dong, Chad Hart, Eddie Chavez, Suwen Pan, Miguel Carriquiry, Jerome R. Florian-Dumortier

Economics Publications

We examine four scenarios for the evolution of the biofuel sector using a partial equilibrium model of the world agricultural sector. The model includes the new Renewable Fuels Standard in the 2007 energy act, the two-way relationship between fossil energy and biofuel markets, and a new trend toward corn oil extraction in ethanol plants. At one extreme, one scenario eliminates all support to the biofuel sector when the energy price is low, while the other extreme assumes no distribution bottleneck in ethanol demand growth when the energy price is high. Of the remaining two scenarios, one considers a pure market ...


Sensitivity Of Carbon Emission Estimates From Indirect Land-Use Change, Jerome R. F. Dumortier, Dermot J. Hayes, Miguel Carriquiry, Fengxia Dong, Xiaodong Du, Amani E. Elobeid, Jacinto F. Fabiosa, Simla Tokgoz Jul 2009

Sensitivity Of Carbon Emission Estimates From Indirect Land-Use Change, Jerome R. F. Dumortier, Dermot J. Hayes, Miguel Carriquiry, Fengxia Dong, Xiaodong Du, Amani E. Elobeid, Jacinto F. Fabiosa, Simla Tokgoz

CARD Working Papers

We analyze the sensitivity of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land-use change to modifications in assumptions concerning crop area, yield, and deforestation. For this purpose, we run a modified version of the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Agricultural Outlook Model, which was used previously to assess the impacts of energy price increases and biofuel policy changes on land conversion. To calculate the GHG implications of agricultural activity, we use GreenAgSiM, a model developed to evaluate emissions from land conversion and agricultural production. Both models are applied to scenarios that lead to higher US ethanol production. The results are ...


Speculation And Volatility Spillover In The Crude Oil And Agricultural Commodity Markets: A Bayesian Analysis, Xiaodong Du, Cindy L. Yu, Dermot J. Hayes May 2009

Speculation And Volatility Spillover In The Crude Oil And Agricultural Commodity Markets: A Bayesian Analysis, Xiaodong Du, Cindy L. Yu, Dermot J. Hayes

CARD Working Papers

This paper assesses the roles of various factors influencing the volatility of crude oil prices and the possible linkage between this volatility and agricultural commodity markets. Stochastic volatility models are applied to weekly crude oil, corn, and wheat futures prices from November 1998 to January 2009. Model parameters are estimated using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The main results are as follows. Speculation, scalping, and petroleum inventories are found to be important in explaining oil price variation. Several properties of crude oil price dynamics are established, including mean-reversion, a negative correlation between price and volatility, volatility clustering, and infrequent ...


Identification Of Expected Outcomes In A Data Error Mixing Model With Multiplicative Mean Independence, Brent Kreider, John V. Pepper May 2009

Identification Of Expected Outcomes In A Data Error Mixing Model With Multiplicative Mean Independence, Brent Kreider, John V. Pepper

Economics Working Papers (2002–2016)

We consider the problem of identifying a mean outcome in corrupt sampling where the observed outcome is a mixture of the distribution of interest and some other distribution.We make two contributions to this literature. First, the statistical independence assumption maintained under contaminated sampling is relaxed to the weaker assumption that the outcome is mean independent of the mixing process. We then generalize this restriction to allow the two conditional means to differ by a known or bounded factor of proportionality. Second, in the special case of a binary outcome, we consider the possibility that draws from the alternative distribution ...


Towards An Integrated Global Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Model: Greenhouse Gases From Agriculture Simulation Model (Greenagsim), Jerome R. F. Dumortier, Dermot J. Hayes May 2009

Towards An Integrated Global Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Model: Greenhouse Gases From Agriculture Simulation Model (Greenagsim), Jerome R. F. Dumortier, Dermot J. Hayes

CARD Working Papers

The Greenhouse Gases from Agriculture Simulation Model (GreenAgSiM) presented in this paper aims to quantify emissions from agricultural activity on a global scale. The model takes emissions into account that are directly attributable to agricultural production, such as enteric fermentation (methane), manure management (methane and nitrous oxide), and agricultural soil management (nitrous oxide). Furthermore, carbon stock differences from land-use change (carbon dioxide) induced by agriculture are included in the model. The model will provide policy makers with information about the greenhouse gas implications of policy changes.


Partially Identifying Treatment Effects With An Application To Covering The Uninsured, Brent Kreider, Steven C. Hill Apr 2009

Partially Identifying Treatment Effects With An Application To Covering The Uninsured, Brent Kreider, Steven C. Hill

Economics Publications

We extend the nonparametric literature on partially identified probability distributions and use our analytical results to provide sharp bounds on the impact of universal health insurance on provider visits and medical expenditures. Our approach accounts for uncertainty about the reliability of self-reported insurance status as well as uncertainty created by unknown counterfactuals. We construct health insurance validation data using detailed information from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. Imposing relatively weak nonparametric assumptions, we estimate that under universal coverage monthly per capita provider visits and expenditures would rise by less than 8 percent and 16 percent, respectively, across the nonelderly population.


Land Allocation Effects Of The Global Ethanol Surge: Predictions From The International Fapri Model, Jacinto F. Fabiosa, John C. Beghin, Fengxia Dong, Amani E. Elobeid, Simla Tokgoz, Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu Mar 2009

Land Allocation Effects Of The Global Ethanol Surge: Predictions From The International Fapri Model, Jacinto F. Fabiosa, John C. Beghin, Fengxia Dong, Amani E. Elobeid, Simla Tokgoz, Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu

CARD Working Papers

We quantify the emergence of biofuel markets and its impact on U.S. and world agriculture for the coming decade using the multi-market, multi-commodity international FAPRI (Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute) model. The model incorporates the trade-offs between biofuel, feed, and food production and consumption and international feedback effects of the emergence through world commodity prices and trade. We examine land allocation by type of crop, and pasture use for countries growing feedstock for ethanol (corn, sorghum, wheat, sugarcane, and other grains) and major crops competing with feedstock for land resources such as oilseeds. We shock the model with ...


Cognitive Dissonance As A Means Of Reducing Hypothetical Bias, Frode Alfnes, Chengyan Yue, Helen H. Jensen Feb 2009

Cognitive Dissonance As A Means Of Reducing Hypothetical Bias, Frode Alfnes, Chengyan Yue, Helen H. Jensen

CARD Working Papers

Hypothetical bias is a persistent problem in stated preference studies. We propose and test a method for reducing hypothetical bias based on the cognitive dissonance literature in social psychology. A central element of this literature is that people prefer not to take inconsistent stands and will change their attitudes and behavior to make them consistent. We find that participants in a stated preference willingness-to-pay study, when told that a nonhypothetical study of similar goods would follow, state significantly lower willingness to pay than participants not so informed. In other words, participants adjust their stated willingness to pay to avoid cognitive ...