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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

Modelling Course Ii, Bryane Michael Jan 2015

Modelling Course Ii, Bryane Michael

Bryane Michael (bryane.michael@stcatz.ox.ac.uk)

Second part of Post It notes for Modelling Course


Playing Ukraine After The Devaluation, Bryane Michael Jan 2014

Playing Ukraine After The Devaluation, Bryane Michael

Bryane Michael (bryane.michael@stcatz.ox.ac.uk)

The grivna devaluation is coming. What will investors do to take advantage of the crisis? Written as an advice column, this article predicts the way investors will make money from Ukraine's upcoming currency and banking crisis.


What Role Can An International Financial Centre’S Law Play In The Development Of A Sunrise Industry? The Case Of Hong Kong And Solar Powered Investments, Bryane Michael Jan 2014

What Role Can An International Financial Centre’S Law Play In The Development Of A Sunrise Industry? The Case Of Hong Kong And Solar Powered Investments, Bryane Michael

Bryane Michael (bryane.michael@stcatz.ox.ac.uk)

How can international financial centres like Hong Kong increase assets under management – and thus their size and ranking? Most policymakers and their advisors wrongly answer this question by focusing on financial institutions, and the law that governs them. Instead, policymakers need to start by looking at actual markets. What new tastes and technologies need funding? How can such funding fit into already existing geographies of production, distribution and finance? In this paper, we show how a focus on funding sunrise industries can help increase assets under management for the financial institutions operating in an international financial centre like Hong Kong ...


The Cost Of Antitrust Law To Malaysia’S Financial Services Sector, Bryane Michael, Mark Williams, Susila Munisamy Jan 2014

The Cost Of Antitrust Law To Malaysia’S Financial Services Sector, Bryane Michael, Mark Williams, Susila Munisamy

Bryane Michael (bryane.michael@stcatz.ox.ac.uk)

Judging by only economic incentives, Malaysian financial institutions (particularly banks) should completely ignore the Competition Act. The data show that Malaysian banks probably benefit from anticompetitive behaviour. Political and family connections likely facilitate such behaviour. Given that the Malaysian Competition Commission will likely lack the resources to investigate and sanction anti-competitive behaviour in Malaysia’s banking industry – the banks’ best response to the Act probably consists of ignoring it. Maximum fines of 10 million ringgit and revenue-tied penalties of only 10% of worldwide revenue mean that banks still have strong incentives to engage in anticompetitive behaviour and to pay any ...


Does Financial Market Development Explain (Or At Least Predict) The Demand For Wealth Management And Private Banking Services In Developing Markets?, Bryane Michael, Christopher Hartwell, Gary Ho Jan 2013

Does Financial Market Development Explain (Or At Least Predict) The Demand For Wealth Management And Private Banking Services In Developing Markets?, Bryane Michael, Christopher Hartwell, Gary Ho

Bryane Michael (bryane.michael@stcatz.ox.ac.uk)

How should wealth managers and private bankers find and serve the wealthy – particularly in developing countries? Several banks and consulting firms provide market sizing estimates for the number of high net worth and ultra-high net worth individuals. However, it is still an open question whether financial management services actually create wealth (or increase the number of wealthy persons). How can financial advisors know if, on a macro-level, their service offerings grow their collective assets under management and increase their prospect numbers? In this paper, we find evidence that advanced wealth management and private banking services might help grow a wirehouse ...


The Competition Act Of 2010: What Effect Will The Act Likely Have On The Supply And Prices Of Goods And Services In Malaysia?, Bryane Michael Jan 2013

The Competition Act Of 2010: What Effect Will The Act Likely Have On The Supply And Prices Of Goods And Services In Malaysia?, Bryane Michael

Bryane Michael (bryane.michael@stcatz.ox.ac.uk)

This presentation provides an overview of the likely effects of Malaysia's 2010 Competition Act.


Can The Hong Kong Icac Help Reduce Corruption On The Mainland?, Bryane Michael Jan 2013

Can The Hong Kong Icac Help Reduce Corruption On The Mainland?, Bryane Michael

Bryane Michael (bryane.michael@stcatz.ox.ac.uk)

Hong Kong’s Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) serves as the example par excellence of a successful anti-corruption agency. Yet, the Agency works in one of the more corrupt jurisdictions world-wide (the People’s Republic of China). To what extent can the ICAC – and the Prevention of Bribery Ordinance (POBO) which regulates its work – contribute to reductions in corruption on the Mainland? In this paper, we look at the ways in which the ICAC – technically a Chinese agency (albeit operating in a legally independent jurisdiction) – can help to reduce and prevent corruption on the Mainland. We find that with the ...


Bringing Manufacturing Home: Implications For Emerging Markets Of The Reindustrialisation Of The Core Oecd, Bryane Michael Jan 2013

Bringing Manufacturing Home: Implications For Emerging Markets Of The Reindustrialisation Of The Core Oecd, Bryane Michael

Bryane Michael (bryane.michael@stcatz.ox.ac.uk)

Will new technologies and policies bring manufacturing back to the US, Western Europe and Japan (or the core OECD)? Despite what the media pundits have told us, such manufacturing never really left (though many of the jobs did). The core OECD and its manufacturing companies already lead the world in industrial manufacturing. Much of the growth in emerging markets like China represents market expansion rather than stealing work from the core OECD. Moreover, both developed and emerging market manufacturers are not locked in a race to sell more, higher-valued manufactured goods. Even advanced market manufacturers sought to expand their low-valued ...


Can The Icac Help Fight Corruption On The Mainland?, Bryane Michael Jan 2013

Can The Icac Help Fight Corruption On The Mainland?, Bryane Michael

Bryane Michael (bryane.michael@stcatz.ox.ac.uk)

This presentation reviews the larger paper looking at the ways the Hong Kong's ICAC could help fight corruption on the Mainland.


Interview With Thompson Reuters, Bryane Michael Jan 2012

Interview With Thompson Reuters, Bryane Michael

Bryane Michael (bryane.michael@stcatz.ox.ac.uk)

Interview with Informer Magazine


Hong Kong Sponsors Should Have Little To Fear From Proposed Sfc Rules, Bryane Michael Jan 2012

Hong Kong Sponsors Should Have Little To Fear From Proposed Sfc Rules, Bryane Michael

Bryane Michael (bryane.michael@stcatz.ox.ac.uk)

New rules threaten to increase the legal liability of IPO sponsors in Hong Kong. What effect will the new rules have the IPO market in Hong Kong --- and the sponsors who prepare the new issue? We argue that the new rules -- rather than hindering the IPO market -- promise to deepen it. We review (for the lay-person) the relevant law, previoius econometric studies in the area, and provide conclusions.


The Middle Eastern Wealth Management Industry: Boon Or Bust?, Bryane Michael Jan 2012

The Middle Eastern Wealth Management Industry: Boon Or Bust?, Bryane Michael

Bryane Michael (bryane.michael@stcatz.ox.ac.uk)

The wealth management industry in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) represents a roughly $800 billion opportunity. Yet, tapping this opportunity will require new strategies by the wirehouses looking to penetrate into this market. In this paper, we argue that Middle-Eastern policymakers and bankers will need to develop an indigenous wealth management industry which keeps the super-wealthy’s investments at home. Developing a local national wealth management industry requires letting in foreign competition, changing banking and securities laws, and growing local companies whose share are worth buying. We show why Turkey has succeeded in growing a nationally and internationally ...


Who Is Your Company? Where To Locate To Compete In Emerging Markets, Bryane Michael Jan 2012

Who Is Your Company? Where To Locate To Compete In Emerging Markets, Bryane Michael

Bryane Michael (bryane.michael@stcatz.ox.ac.uk)

Who’s your city? For companies in the developing world, this question determines their market sizes, access to innovative ideas, regulatory environment and proximity to innovative staff. In this brief, we identify the most attractive metropolitan areas to locate in to sell in emerging markets. Taipei, Istanbul, Johannesburg, Santiago, Buenos Aires, Sao Paulo, St. Petersburg, Moscow, Shanghai and Beijing comprise our top 10 list. Close runners-up include Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, Mumbai, Cairo and others. We describe how companies can work with local governments to provide a more attractive business environment in these emerging metropoli. Some ways including providing resources for ...


Notes From Modelling Course, Bryane Michael Jan 2012

Notes From Modelling Course, Bryane Michael

Bryane Michael (bryane.michael@stcatz.ox.ac.uk)

These are the stick-it notes from the modelling building class. I put them online so I can refer to some of the material as needed.


The Prosecution And Confiscation Of The Proceeds Of Illicit Enrichment, Bryane Michael Dec 2011

The Prosecution And Confiscation Of The Proceeds Of Illicit Enrichment, Bryane Michael

Bryane Michael (bryane.michael@stcatz.ox.ac.uk)

These training slides show prosecutors and judges how to find and recover the proceeds of corruption (under Macedonian law as a practical example).


Customs Facilitation And Anti-Corruption (Wco Presentation), Bryane Michael Jan 2011

Customs Facilitation And Anti-Corruption (Wco Presentation), Bryane Michael

Bryane Michael (bryane.michael@stcatz.ox.ac.uk)

This presentation reviews the findings of our paper "Do Customs Trade Facilitation Programmes Help Reduce Customs-Related Corruption?" presented in Abu Dhabi at the WCO meeting.


What Does Kosovo Teach Us About Using Human Rights Law To Prosecute Corruption Offences?, Bryane Michael Jan 2010

What Does Kosovo Teach Us About Using Human Rights Law To Prosecute Corruption Offences?, Bryane Michael

Bryane Michael (bryane.michael@stcatz.ox.ac.uk)

If a patient must pay a bribe to obtain life-saving surgery, does the doctor’s solicitation of a bribe represent a violation of the victim’s human rights? This paper explores the ways in which anti-corruption practitioners can look to various provisions in human rights law in order to prevent or prosecute corruption-related offences. We use Kosovo as a case study because its constitution gives direct effect to the major international human rights conventions. We find -- using Kosovo as a case study -- that some types of corruption lead to separately prosecutable human rights offences. We also find that pre-existing violations ...


What Do We Know About Corruption (And Anti-Corruption) In Customs?, Bryane Michael, Nigel Moore Jan 2010

What Do We Know About Corruption (And Anti-Corruption) In Customs?, Bryane Michael, Nigel Moore

Bryane Michael (bryane.michael@stcatz.ox.ac.uk)

What are the lessons from anti-corruption programmes in Customs agencies over the last 20 years? The data suggest that many of the usual activities -- like codes of conduct and posters do not work. Internal inspectorates, and particularly internal audit, has a large effect on reducing corruption. A review of the literature and best practice presented.


Do Customs Trade Facilitation Programmes Help Reduce Customs-Related Corruption?, Bryane Michael, Frank Ferguson, Alisher Karimov Jan 2010

Do Customs Trade Facilitation Programmes Help Reduce Customs-Related Corruption?, Bryane Michael, Frank Ferguson, Alisher Karimov

Bryane Michael (bryane.michael@stcatz.ox.ac.uk)

Customs-related corruption costs World Customs Organisation (WCO) members at least $2 billion in customs revenue each year. Using recent data only about bribe payers’ actual experiences in paying bribes, we show that trade facilitation would only help reduce corruption and improve efficiency – in a large number of customs agencies -- if the customs agency’s director undertakes a big-bang approach to reform. We also find support for the corruption clubs theory – that customs agencies in the process of reform are either moving toward OECD levels of integrity and efficiency; or they are sliding toward a “red zone” group of countries. Such ...


Foreign Under-Investment In Us Securities And The Role Of Relational Capital, Bryane Michael Jan 2010

Foreign Under-Investment In Us Securities And The Role Of Relational Capital, Bryane Michael

Bryane Michael (bryane.michael@stcatz.ox.ac.uk)

Over 70 academic papers attempt to explain why foreigners invest in US securities. All ignore the vital role of the US broker-dealer. Macroeconomic factors like a trade balance or corporate governance may guide foreign investors toward certain markets. But US broker-dealers provide information to foreign investors and execute the actual trades. We hypothesize that particular foreign investors under-invest in US securities because of a lack of relational capital with US broker-dealers. We find that broker-dealer marketing intensity in foreign markets partly explains foreigners’ decisions to invest in US securities. We also estimate “pent-up” demand for US securities in developing countries ...


The Size And Structure Of Government, Bryane Michael, Maja Popov Jan 2010

The Size And Structure Of Government, Bryane Michael, Maja Popov

Bryane Michael (bryane.michael@stcatz.ox.ac.uk)

Does government size and structure adapt to changes in government’s organisational environment (particularly to uncertainty and complexity) as predicted by organisational theory? We find – using a range of statistical analyses – support for each of the major theories of organisation adaptation (the contingency-based view, resource-based view, and rational choice view). We find that both government size and structure change – holding other factors constant – for changes in the uncertainty and complexity of governments’ organisational environments. We find seven clusters of governments which adapt their organisational sizes differently in response to changes in the uncertainty and complexity of their organisational environments – and ...


Raising Revenue Through Fighting Corruption In Customs, Bryane Michael Jan 2009

Raising Revenue Through Fighting Corruption In Customs, Bryane Michael

Bryane Michael (bryane.michael@stcatz.ox.ac.uk)

I gave this presentation at a WCO meeting in Brussels. Please contact for more accurate data on corruption estimates (I had to rescale some of the estimates for reasons of confidentiality).


Issues In Anti-Corruption Law: How Can Code Of Conduct Laws Be Drafted In Order To Reduce Corruption In A Public Sector Like Romania’S?, Bryane Michael Jan 2009

Issues In Anti-Corruption Law: How Can Code Of Conduct Laws Be Drafted In Order To Reduce Corruption In A Public Sector Like Romania’S?, Bryane Michael

Bryane Michael (bryane.michael@stcatz.ox.ac.uk)

International organisations, like the UN and EU, have encouraged their member states for years to increase civil servants’ compliance with particular codes of conduct. Romania represents probably one of the most advanced countries in attempting to legislate on civil servant ethics through its Code of Conduct Law. Yet, the Romanian Code of Conduct Law possesses significant weaknesses, emanating both from the inherent difficulties of using hard law in a soft law area (like civil servants’ ethics) and the Law’s silence as to specific procedures which government agencies should use in implementing the Law. Given these weaknesses, Romanian government agencies ...


The Evolution Of The Anti-Corruption Industry In The Third Wave Of Anti-Corruption Work, Bryane Michael Jan 2009

The Evolution Of The Anti-Corruption Industry In The Third Wave Of Anti-Corruption Work, Bryane Michael

Bryane Michael (bryane.michael@stcatz.ox.ac.uk)

Work on anti-corruption has changed significantly in the mid-1990s -- reflecting a "third wave" of anti-corruption work. If the first and second waves of anti-corruption work reflected the marketisation of anti-corruption projects, the third wave reflects the direct cross-border co-operation between law enforcement agencies (particularly in the European Union). The first part of this paper reviews the literature and the data we consulted in our (rather informal) study. The second part traces the evolution of the anti-corruption industry across time – showing the beginning of each new wave as a “structural break” in the organisational structure of project delivery. The observation of ...


Extradition Law And The Ukraine: Looking For Principles In The Echr's Case Law, Bryane Michael Jan 2009

Extradition Law And The Ukraine: Looking For Principles In The Echr's Case Law, Bryane Michael

Bryane Michael (bryane.michael@stcatz.ox.ac.uk)

This presentation provides a review of ECHR's case law since 2005 related to extradition cases. The Ukraine represents one of leading countries in the Strasbourg's court for human rights violations involving extradition cases. The presentation offers concrete ways which the Ukrainian authorities can help bolster human rights in its processing of extradition cases.


Issues In Anti-Corruption Law: Can An Activist Regulatory Stance Overcome Legislative Problems In Preventive Anti-Corruption Agencies Like Montenegro’S?, Bryane Michael Jan 2009

Issues In Anti-Corruption Law: Can An Activist Regulatory Stance Overcome Legislative Problems In Preventive Anti-Corruption Agencies Like Montenegro’S?, Bryane Michael

Bryane Michael (bryane.michael@stcatz.ox.ac.uk)

Article 6 of the UN Convention Against Corruption requires that signatory states establish an anti-corruption agency (or agencies) responsible for preventing corruption. However, the Convention – and legal scholarship in general – provides little direction about how such agencies should be organised. Moreover, the piece-meal nature of anti-corruption legislation in most developing countries makes the efficient operation of such agencies difficult to impossible. This article argues that regulatory instruments can help overcome the inherent weaknesses of legislative governing many anti-corruption agencies. Using the Montenegro’s Directorate for Anti-Corruption Initiatives (DACI), I show how the design of a regulation – relying on already existing ...


Mutual Legal Assistance For Accession And Enp Countries, Bryane Michael Jan 2009

Mutual Legal Assistance For Accession And Enp Countries, Bryane Michael

Bryane Michael (bryane.michael@stcatz.ox.ac.uk)

This presentation provides a strategy for adopting the provisions related to mutual legal assistance in ETS 182 for accession and ENP countries.


Use Of Functional Reviews And Audits In Eastern European Public Administration, Bryane Michael Jan 2009

Use Of Functional Reviews And Audits In Eastern European Public Administration, Bryane Michael

Bryane Michael (bryane.michael@stcatz.ox.ac.uk)

This presentation provides an overview of the internal audit methodology as applied to functional reviews and audits in the public sector. Specific examples and cases given (and critiques of the classical way of conducting these reviews).


Should The World Customs Organisation Develop A Hard Law Approach To Anti-Corruption In Customs?, Bryane Michael Jan 2009

Should The World Customs Organisation Develop A Hard Law Approach To Anti-Corruption In Customs?, Bryane Michael

Bryane Michael (bryane.michael@stcatz.ox.ac.uk)

The WCO, among international organisations, remains conspicuously absent in its work on anti-corruption. This brief, a set of notes for a conference lecture, provide the steps the WCO should take in order to help customs agencies adopt anti-corruption legislation world-wide.


Using Court Statistics To Improve Justice Sector Outcomes In Armenia, Bryane Michael Jan 2009

Using Court Statistics To Improve Justice Sector Outcomes In Armenia, Bryane Michael

Bryane Michael (bryane.michael@stcatz.ox.ac.uk)

This presentation discusses the collection and use of court statistics in order to improve justice outcomes. The Council of Europe's CEPEJ's approach is presentated and concrete proposals for Ministry of Justice rulemaking made.