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Animal Sciences

University of Arkansas, Fayetteville

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Time Series Forecast Analysis In Wholesale Broiler Markets, Christopher R. Sims Dec 2017

Time Series Forecast Analysis In Wholesale Broiler Markets, Christopher R. Sims

Theses and Dissertations

In 2016 the chicken industry provided nearly 1.2 million jobs, 68 billion dollars in wages, 313 billion dollars in economic activity and 24 billion dollars in government revenue (John Dunham & Associates, Inc., 2016). Broiler production has changed dramatically from the early 90’s to the turn of the 21st century. Technological advancements, continuous improvements, production efficiencies and industry changes have made the industry the global market it is today. The poultry industry is an extremely volatile market with prices constantly fluctuating in response to input price volatility and demand and supply changes. These changes are often driven by world economic conditions which impacts the roughly 20% of U.S. production that is exported. Due to these variations, accurate forecasting of poultry prices is difficult. Economic modeling is complex at best; this paper examines a comparison between vector autoregression (VAR) and autoregressive (AR) techniques. Urner Barry average monthly northeast wholesale poultry parts price data was used for this research. Parts analyzed are; drumstick (DRUM), jumbo boneless skinless breast tender out (BSBTO), leg quarter (LQ), thigh (THIGH), small wing (SMWING), jumbo wing (JMWING), tender (TENDER) and whole bird without giblets weighing 2 ¼ lbs. (WOG). This modeling will focus on the ...