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Articles 1 - 30 of 98

Full-Text Articles in Risk Analysis

Use Of Neural Networks To Identify Safety Prevention Priorities In Agro-Manufacturing Operations Within Commercial Grain Elevators, Fatemeh Davoudi Kakhki, Steven A. Freeman, Gretchen A. Mosher Nov 2019

Use Of Neural Networks To Identify Safety Prevention Priorities In Agro-Manufacturing Operations Within Commercial Grain Elevators, Fatemeh Davoudi Kakhki, Steven A. Freeman, Gretchen A. Mosher

Fatemeh Davoudi Kakhki

The grain handling industry plays a significant role in U.S. agriculture by storing, distributing, and processing a variety of agricultural commodities. Commercial grain elevators are hazardous agro-manufacturing work environments where workers are prone to severe injuries, due to the nature of the activities and workplace. Safety incidents in agro-manufacturing operations generally arise from a combination of factors, rather than a single cause, therefore, research on occupational incidents must look deeper into identifying the underlying causes, through the application of advanced analyses methods. In occupational safety, it is possible to estimate and predict probability of safety risks through developing artificial ...


A Multi-Stage Optimization Model For Flexibility In Engineering Design, Ramin Giahi, Cameron A. Mackenzie, Chao Hu Oct 2019

A Multi-Stage Optimization Model For Flexibility In Engineering Design, Ramin Giahi, Cameron A. Mackenzie, Chao Hu

Cameron A. MacKenzie

Engineered systems often operate in uncertain environments. Understanding different environments under which a system will operate is important in engineering design. Thus, there is a need to design systems with the capability to respond to future changes. This research explores designing a hybrid renewable energy system while taking into account long-range uncertainties of 20 years. The objective is to minimize the expected cost of the hybrid renewable energy system over the next 20 years. A design solution may be flexible, which means that the design can be adapted or modified to meet different scenarios in the future. The value of ...


Design Thinking: An Approach With Various Perceptions, Sanne Bouwman, Jesper Voorendt, Boris Eisenbart, Seda Mckilligan Aug 2019

Design Thinking: An Approach With Various Perceptions, Sanne Bouwman, Jesper Voorendt, Boris Eisenbart, Seda Mckilligan

Seda McKilligan

Design Thinking has become increasingly popular across different disciplines. However, what it exactly entails is becoming more and more vague, leading to the term being used for many different approaches and applications. This paper presents an interview study with experts on the application and training of Design Thinking in academia and industry. We find a divide with some seeing Design Thinking as a mere toolbox of methods, while others see it as an umbrella term for the mindset that determines how designers think and act. Subjects unanimously attest the approach large potential to support certain types of businesses, when applied ...


A Value-Focused Thinking Approach To Assessing Community Resilience, Rohit Suresh, Cameron A. Mackenzie Jul 2019

A Value-Focused Thinking Approach To Assessing Community Resilience, Rohit Suresh, Cameron A. Mackenzie

Cameron A. MacKenzie

Disaster or community resilience

  • Divide resilience into 4 or 5 categories (e.g., social, infrastructure, economic, information)
  • Indicators or measures gathered at a state or regional level (20-40 measures)
  • Normalize indicators on a 0-1 scale
  • Aggregate indicators through a weighted linear additive equation (often equal weights)
  • Examples: Cutter et al. 2008, Berke et al. 2012, 2014, Frazier et al. 2013, Linkov et al. 2013


Analysis And Forecasting Of Mass Shootings Using Change Point Detection, Xue Lei, Cameron A. Mackenzie Jul 2019

Analysis And Forecasting Of Mass Shootings Using Change Point Detection, Xue Lei, Cameron A. Mackenzie

Cameron A. MacKenzie

Motivations

We do not know:

  • how the occurring rate of active and mass shootings changed over past few years
  • when the change of occurring rate occurred
  • the overall trend of the number of active and mass shootings over next few years


Transportation Safety Performance Of Us Bus Transit Agencies And Population Density: A Cross-Sectional Analysis (2008-2014), Ilker Karaca, Peter T. Savolainen Jul 2019

Transportation Safety Performance Of Us Bus Transit Agencies And Population Density: A Cross-Sectional Analysis (2008-2014), Ilker Karaca, Peter T. Savolainen

Ilker Karaca

The paper examines the transportation safety performance of transit agencies providing public bus service in the US by using data from the National Transit Database (NTD)

Uses NTD data for a seven-year period from 2008 to 2014 • 3,853 observations for 651 public transportation agencies in 50 states

Seven types of bus transit fatalities and injuries (including passengers, operators, pedestrians, bicyclists)

Main explanatory variable: urban density obtained from the US Census figures

Other explanatory variables: total agency revenue miles, unlinked passenger trips, agency fleet size, and urban population


Nchrp Synthesis 499: Alternate Design/Alternate Bid Process For Pavement-Type Selection. A Synthesis Of Highway Practice, Douglas D. Gransberg, Ashley F. Buss, Ilker Karaca, Michael C. Loulakis Jul 2019

Nchrp Synthesis 499: Alternate Design/Alternate Bid Process For Pavement-Type Selection. A Synthesis Of Highway Practice, Douglas D. Gransberg, Ashley F. Buss, Ilker Karaca, Michael C. Loulakis

Ilker Karaca

Highway administrators, engineers, and researchers often face problems for which information already exists, either in documented form or as undocumented experience and practice. This information may be fragmented, scattered, and unevaluated. As a consequence, full knowledge of what has been learned about a problem may not be brought to bear on its solution. Costly research findings may go unused, valuable experience may be overlooked, and due consideration may not be given to recommended practices for solving or alleviating the problem. There is information on nearly every subject of concern to highway administrators and engineers. Much of it derives from research ...


Top-Down Construction Cost Estimating Model Using An Artificial Neural Network, Douglas D. Gransberg, H. David Jeong, Ilker Karaca, Brendon Gardner Jun 2019

Top-Down Construction Cost Estimating Model Using An Artificial Neural Network, Douglas D. Gransberg, H. David Jeong, Ilker Karaca, Brendon Gardner

Ilker Karaca

This report contains the information and background on top-down cost estimating using artificial neural networks (ANN)_to enhance the accuracy of MDT early estimates of construction costs. Upon conducting an extensive review of MDT’s budgeting and cost estimating efforts, and following a survey of agency experts on the identification of the most salient project attributes with the dual-objectives of low effort and high accuracy, a rational method for top-down variable selection is proposed. Selected variables were further tested in their explanatory power of construction costs through the application of two cost estimating methodologies—multiple regression and artificial neural network ...


Cubelos, G., Valenzuela, B., Kularathna, S., Iliopoulos, N., Quiroz, M., Yavar, R., Henríquez, P., Bacigalupe, G., Onuki, M., Mikami, T., Cienfuegos, R., Aranguiz, R., & Esteban, M. (2019, June 26). Assessing Tsunami Awareness In Remote Coastal Towns In Northern Chile Through Community Mapping., Gonzalo Bacigalupe Jun 2019

Cubelos, G., Valenzuela, B., Kularathna, S., Iliopoulos, N., Quiroz, M., Yavar, R., Henríquez, P., Bacigalupe, G., Onuki, M., Mikami, T., Cienfuegos, R., Aranguiz, R., & Esteban, M. (2019, June 26). Assessing Tsunami Awareness In Remote Coastal Towns In Northern Chile Through Community Mapping., Gonzalo Bacigalupe

Gonzalo Bacigalupe, EdD, MPH

In 2015 and 2017 unusual ocean and atmospheric conditions produced many years’ worth of rainfall in short periods over Northern Chile’s Atacama Desert, resulting in catastrophic flooding in the town of Chañaral. However, the town is not only at risk of fluvial flooding, it is also at risk of tsunamis. Through a community mapping exercise, the authors attempted to establish the level of community awareness about tsunamis, and contrasted it with that of other types of water-related hazards facing the town (namely that of flooding due to high intensity rain). This was then compared with the results of field ...


Not-So-Risky Business? Assessing The Risk Of Integrating Large Rpvs Into The Current Air Traffic System, Hans-Joachim K. Ruff-Stahl, Steven Esser, Dirk Farsch, Thomas Graner, Robert Klein, Christian Schneidt, Stefan Schoenborn Jul 2018

Not-So-Risky Business? Assessing The Risk Of Integrating Large Rpvs Into The Current Air Traffic System, Hans-Joachim K. Ruff-Stahl, Steven Esser, Dirk Farsch, Thomas Graner, Robert Klein, Christian Schneidt, Stefan Schoenborn

Hans-Joachim Ruff-Stahl

In spite of considerable efforts to commercialize large remotely piloted vehicles (RPV), an integration of these RPVs into the existing Air Transportation System (ATS) and Airspace Structure is pending. The purpose of this paper was to assess the risks of an exemplary integration of a Heron 1 type RPV into the existing European air space structure within the current regulatory framework and without the availability of sense and avoid technology. Six incident occurrence scenarios were investigated, based on a modified Fault Tree Analysis and Eurocontrol’s risk matrix. It was found that without the implementation of technological or procedural changes ...


High Consequence Scenarios For North Korean Atmospheric Nuclear Tests With Policy Recommendations For The U.S. Government, Thomas S. Popik, Jordan T. Kearns, George H. Baker Iii, Henry F. Cooper, William R. Harris May 2018

High Consequence Scenarios For North Korean Atmospheric Nuclear Tests With Policy Recommendations For The U.S. Government, Thomas S. Popik, Jordan T. Kearns, George H. Baker Iii, Henry F. Cooper, William R. Harris

George H Baker

The government of North Korea has declared high-altitude EMP-capability to be a “strategic goal” and has also threatened an atmospheric test of a hydrogen bomb. Atmospheric nuclear tests have the potential to cripple satellites and the undersea cable networks critical to communication, and navigation necessary for trans-Pacific trade among the U.S., China, and other nations. When a nuclear warhead is detonated at high altitude, a series of electromagnetic pulses radiate downward within the line of sight of the blast. These pulses can disable equipment with miniature electronics and long conductors. Electric grid controls and transmission systems are especially vulnerable ...


Hispanic Maternal And Children's Perceptions Of Neighborhood Safety Related To Walking And Cycling, Norma Olvera, Dennis W. Smith, Chanam Lee, Jian Liu, Jay Lee, Stephanie Kellam, Jun-Hyun Kim Sep 2017

Hispanic Maternal And Children's Perceptions Of Neighborhood Safety Related To Walking And Cycling, Norma Olvera, Dennis W. Smith, Chanam Lee, Jian Liu, Jay Lee, Stephanie Kellam, Jun-Hyun Kim

Jian Liu

This study examined neighborhood safety as perceived by children (mean age=10 years) and their mothers, and its association with children's physical activity. For all eight safety items examined, children perceived their environment as less dangerous than mothers (p<0.05). None of the multiple regression models predicting children's physical activity by safety perceptions were significant (p>0.10). The maternal perception model explained the highest percentage of variance (R2=0.26), compared to the children's perception model (R2=0.22). Findings suggest that future studies should explore relations between self-reported and objectively measured safety barriers to Hispanic youth walking and cycling.


A Review Focujsed On The Psychological Effectiveness Of Tai Chi On Different Populations, Long Zhang, Thomas Lowder, Jian Liu Sep 2017

A Review Focujsed On The Psychological Effectiveness Of Tai Chi On Different Populations, Long Zhang, Thomas Lowder, Jian Liu

Jian Liu

No abstract provided.


Aging Effect On Foot Dynamics During Unexpected Slips, Jian Liu, Thurmon E. Lockhart Sep 2017

Aging Effect On Foot Dynamics During Unexpected Slips, Jian Liu, Thurmon E. Lockhart

Jian Liu

Slip-induced fall accidents have been recognized as a serious threat to the health of the elderly.The objective of the current study was to investigate the aging effect on the biomechanical reactions of both perturbed foot and unperturbed foot to the unexpected slips. Nineteen younger (mean age: 25.0 years old) and twenty-one older (mean age: 71.2 years old) adults were involved in a laboratory study,in which slippery surface was induced during walking without their awareness.The reactive responses of both slipping foot and unperturbed foot were quantified by optical motion capture system and force platforms.The results ...


Processus De Décision Et Complexité: Le Feu De Yarnell Hill Du 30 Juin 2013 [Decision-Making Processes And Complexity: The Yarnell Hill Fire Of June 30th, 2013], Karim Hardy, Louise K. Comfort Aug 2017

Processus De Décision Et Complexité: Le Feu De Yarnell Hill Du 30 Juin 2013 [Decision-Making Processes And Complexity: The Yarnell Hill Fire Of June 30th, 2013], Karim Hardy, Louise K. Comfort

Karim Hardy

Re-forming the information stream in decision processes after severe accidents allows scientists aRecréer les flux d’information au sein des processus de décision après une catastrophe permet aux chercheurs ainsi qu’aux décideurs d’identifier les points à partir desquels une action défaillante débute ainsi que les écarts dans les processus d’information qui pourraient être corrigés afin de réduire les futurs lors de futurs incidents. Le 30 juin 2013, le feu de Yarnell Hill en Arizona (Etats-Unis) évolue rapidement dans des conditions environnementale et managériale très difficiles menant à l’effondrement de la stratégie de lutte et à la ...


Hazard Mitigation Through A Systemic Model Of Accident To A Socio-Technical System: A Case Study, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri Aug 2017

Hazard Mitigation Through A Systemic Model Of Accident To A Socio-Technical System: A Case Study, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri

Karim Hardy

This paper presents the STAMP (systems-theoretic accident modeling and processes) accident model, based on systems theory, and describes its application in the context of risk prevention related to the remediation of contaminated sediments. The implementation of the model is described, and results are presented both in methodological and technical terms. The goal of this article is to emphasize the need of new approaches to take into account hazards and accidents within socio-technical systems.


Decisions Management During Wildland Fires: Accidents Viewed As A Spatiotemporal Inadequacy, Karim Hardy Aug 2017

Decisions Management During Wildland Fires: Accidents Viewed As A Spatiotemporal Inadequacy, Karim Hardy

Karim Hardy

Extreme situations as wildland fires are a source of stress and pressure. In such events, decision-makers and incident commanders need to address a specific problem: how to manage time and resources to make meaningful decisions? Current models of accidents that exist to explain and manage catastrophes and disasters are inadequate and insufficient to deal with resources and time pressure due to uncertainty within a complex organization. Current incident response structures are incompetent and impotent to handle effectively a dynamic evolution of space and time in order to bring a situation back to stability adequately.


Modelling And Hazard Analysis For Contaminated Sediments Using Stamp Model, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri Aug 2017

Modelling And Hazard Analysis For Contaminated Sediments Using Stamp Model, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri

Karim Hardy

Processes for remediation (removal of pollution or contaminants) of contaminated sediments have been very efficient. These technologies, which are particularly complex, call for a comprehensive approach to risk analysis which characterises all threats (to humans, equipment, local residents, the environment, etc.) . The STAMP accident model (Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes) is an example of such a comprehensive approach, and it has been chosen to characterise the risks associated with Novosol (registered trademark), an innovative remediation process.


Modelling And Hazard Analysis For Contaminated Sediments Using Stamp Model And Stpa Tool, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri Aug 2017

Modelling And Hazard Analysis For Contaminated Sediments Using Stamp Model And Stpa Tool, Karim Hardy, Franck Guarnieri

Karim Hardy

The goal of this article is dual: first, introducing a new model of accident named STAMP (systems-theoretic accident modeling and processes); then applying the model to an innovative process for the treatment of contaminated substances and the re-use of treated substances. This article is a demonstration for a need of a new tool to take into account hazards and safety within socio-technical systems.


Capturing Cognitive Fingerprints From Keystroke Dynamics, J. Morris Chang, Chi-Chen Fang, Kuan-Hsing Ho, Norene Kelly, Pei-Yuan Wu, Yixiao Ding, Chris Chu, Stephen B. Gilbert, Amed E. Kamal, Sun-Yuan Kung Jun 2017

Capturing Cognitive Fingerprints From Keystroke Dynamics, J. Morris Chang, Chi-Chen Fang, Kuan-Hsing Ho, Norene Kelly, Pei-Yuan Wu, Yixiao Ding, Chris Chu, Stephen B. Gilbert, Amed E. Kamal, Sun-Yuan Kung

Morris Chang

Conventional authentication systems identify a user only at the entry point. Keystroke dynamics can continuously authenticate users by their typing rhythms without extra devices. This article presents a new feature called cognitive typing rhythm (CTR) to continuously verify the identities of computer users. Two machine techniques, SVM and KRR, have been developed for the system. The best results from experiments conducted with 1,977 users show a false-rejection rate of 0.7 percent and a false-acceptance rate of 5.5 percent. CTR therefore constitutes a cognitive fingerprint for continuous. Its effectiveness has been verified through a large-scale dataset. This article ...


Balancing Research And Funding Using Value Of Information And Portfolio Tools For Nanomaterial Risk Classification Jan 2016

Balancing Research And Funding Using Value Of Information And Portfolio Tools For Nanomaterial Risk Classification

Jeffrey Keisler

Risk research for nanomaterials is currently prioritized by means of expert workshops and other deliberative processes. However, analytical techniques that quantify and compare alternative research investments are increasingly recommended. Here, we apply value of information and portfolio decision analysis—methods commonly applied in financial and operations management—to prioritize risk research for multiwalled carbon nanotubes and nanoparticulate silver and titanium dioxide. We modify the widely accepted CB Nanotool hazard evaluation framework, which combines nano- and bulk-material properties into a hazard score, to operate probabilistically with uncertain inputs. Literature is reviewed to develop uncertain estimates for each input parameter, and a ...


Operational Resilience: Concepts, Design And Analysis, Alexander A. Ganin, Emanuelle Massaro, Alexander Gutfraind, Nicholas Steen, Jeffrey Keisler, Alexander Kott, Rami Mangoubi, Igor Linkov Jan 2016

Operational Resilience: Concepts, Design And Analysis, Alexander A. Ganin, Emanuelle Massaro, Alexander Gutfraind, Nicholas Steen, Jeffrey Keisler, Alexander Kott, Rami Mangoubi, Igor Linkov

Jeffrey Keisler

Building resilience into today’s complex infrastructures is critical to the daily functioning of society and
its ability to withstand and recover from natural disasters, epidemics, and cyber-threats. This study
proposes quantitative measures that capture and implement the definition of engineering resilience
advanced by the National Academy of Sciences. The approach is applicable across physical, information,
and social domains. It evaluates the critical functionality, defined as a performance function of time set
by the stakeholders. Critical functionality is a source of valuable information, such as the integrated
system resilience over a time interval, and its robustness. The paper demonstrates the ...


Adaptation Of Forward Military Airspace Management For Civilian Uas Emergency Services Operations, John C. Griffith Ph.D., Brent A. Terwilliger Ph.D. Jan 2016

Adaptation Of Forward Military Airspace Management For Civilian Uas Emergency Services Operations, John C. Griffith Ph.D., Brent A. Terwilliger Ph.D.

John Griffith

Potential use of unmanned aircraft system (UAS) to save lives, improve safety, and protect property has generated preliminary research in three major areas of the fire service, including aviation, structure and wildland scenarios.   Roadblocks to the effective use of UAS technology will be discussed with a focus on command, control, and communication (C3) issues and governmental actions to limit the use of UAS due to aviation integration safety concerns.  The results of this research will include presented adaptation of Joint Terminal Air Controller (JTAC) methodology, typically used for military command and control (Deptula & Dahl, 2003), for civilian emergency services operations ...


A Household-Level Approach To Staging Wildfire Evacuation Warnings Using Trigger Modeling, Dapeng Li Oct 2015

A Household-Level Approach To Staging Wildfire Evacuation Warnings Using Trigger Modeling, Dapeng Li

Dapeng Li

Wildfire evacuation trigger points are prominent geographic features (e.g., ridges, roads, and rivers) utilized in wildfire evacuation and suppression practices, such that when a fire crosses a feature, an evacuation is recommended for the communities or firefighters in the path of the fire. Recent studies of wildfire evacuation triggers have used Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and fire-spread modeling to calculate evacuation trigger buffers around a location or community that provide a specified amount of warning time. Wildfire evacuation trigger modeling has been applied in many scenarios including dynamic forecast weather conditions, community-level evacuation planning, pedestrian evacuation, and protecting firefighters ...


From Human Reliability To Resilience & System Performance - Adapting To A Changing World, Gesa Praetorius, Fulko C. Van Westrenen Oct 2015

From Human Reliability To Resilience & System Performance - Adapting To A Changing World, Gesa Praetorius, Fulko C. Van Westrenen

Gesa Praetorius

Presentation given at the IALA Human Factors in VTS workshop, 11 October 2015, Gothenburg, Sweden.


Applying Fram To Enhance Formal Safety Assessment In The Maritime Domain, Gesa Praetorius May 2015

Applying Fram To Enhance Formal Safety Assessment In The Maritime Domain, Gesa Praetorius

Gesa Praetorius

Presentation given at the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) workshop in Olten, Switzerland, 12 June 2015.


Topsis As A Method To Populate Risk Matrix Axes, Christian Salmon, Mohammadsadegh Mobin, Afshan Roshani May 2015

Topsis As A Method To Populate Risk Matrix Axes, Christian Salmon, Mohammadsadegh Mobin, Afshan Roshani

Mohammadsadegh Mobin

This research utilizes TOPSIS (a Multi-Criteria ranking methodology) to populate the axes of a risk matrix when modeling risk exposure onboard commercial fishing vessels with the intent to identify mitigating interventions in low risk settings for possible transfer to high risk settings. The specific hazard of interest is the release of refrigerants into confined spaces onboard commercial fishing vessels. The metrics of risk are: 1) expectation that refrigerants are released onboard vessels, and 2) consequence of releases that have occurred. To model expectation: data were collected on the United States’ commercial fisheries, including location and number of participating vessels. These ...


Strengthening The Rail Mode Of Transport By Condition Based Preventive Maintenance, René Schenkendorf, Jörn Groos, Lars Johannes Jan 2015

Strengthening The Rail Mode Of Transport By Condition Based Preventive Maintenance, René Schenkendorf, Jörn Groos, Lars Johannes

René Schenkendorf

No abstract provided.


Strategic Cyber Intelligence.Pdf, Randy Borum, John Felker, Sean Kern, Kristen Dennesen, Tonya Feyes Dec 2014

Strategic Cyber Intelligence.Pdf, Randy Borum, John Felker, Sean Kern, Kristen Dennesen, Tonya Feyes

Randy Borum

Purpose – This paper aims to highlight the importance and role of strategic cyber intelligence to support risk-informed decision-making, ultimately leading to improved objectives, policies, architectures and investments to advance a nation or organization’s interests in the cyber domain.
Design/methodology/approach – Integration of professional research literature from the fields of intelligence studies, strategy and information/computer security.
Findings – Investing in technology, firewalls and intrusion detection systems is appropriate but, by itself, insufficient. Intelligence is a key component. Cyber intelligence emphasizes prevention and anticipation, to focus cybersecurity efforts before an attack occurs (“left of the hack”). Strategic cyber intelligence can ...


Identification And Ranking Of High Pedestrian Crash Zones Using Gis, Vanjeeswaran Krishnakumar, Srinivas Pulugurtha, Shashi Nambisan Sep 2014

Identification And Ranking Of High Pedestrian Crash Zones Using Gis, Vanjeeswaran Krishnakumar, Srinivas Pulugurtha, Shashi Nambisan

Shashi Nambisan

Identification of high risk zones is important to develop and implement strategies to enhance pedestrian safety. While the analysis of motor vehicle related crashes has seen the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), pedestrian related safety analyses have not taken as much advantage of the capabilities afforded by GIS programs. The objectives of this research are to present a methodology to identify and rank high pedestrian crash zones, and to introduce a GIS based tool based on the methodology. Capabilities of the tool include the following: identify spatial concentration patterns, select high pedestrian crash zones, extract crash and demographic characteristics ...