Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®

Risk Analysis Commons

Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®

Articles 1 - 6 of 6

Full-Text Articles in Risk Analysis

A Multi-Stage Optimization Model For Flexibility In Engineering Design, Ramin Giahi, Cameron A. Mackenzie, Chao Hu Oct 2019

A Multi-Stage Optimization Model For Flexibility In Engineering Design, Ramin Giahi, Cameron A. Mackenzie, Chao Hu

Cameron A. MacKenzie

Engineered systems often operate in uncertain environments. Understanding different environments under which a system will operate is important in engineering design. Thus, there is a need to design systems with the capability to respond to future changes. This research explores designing a hybrid renewable energy system while taking into account long-range uncertainties of 20 years. The objective is to minimize the expected cost of the hybrid renewable energy system over the next 20 years. A design solution may be flexible, which means that the design can be adapted or modified to meet different scenarios in the future. The value of ...


A Value-Focused Thinking Approach To Assessing Community Resilience, Rohit Suresh, Cameron A. Mackenzie Jul 2019

A Value-Focused Thinking Approach To Assessing Community Resilience, Rohit Suresh, Cameron A. Mackenzie

Cameron A. MacKenzie

Disaster or community resilience

  • Divide resilience into 4 or 5 categories (e.g., social, infrastructure, economic, information)
  • Indicators or measures gathered at a state or regional level (20-40 measures)
  • Normalize indicators on a 0-1 scale
  • Aggregate indicators through a weighted linear additive equation (often equal weights)
  • Examples: Cutter et al. 2008, Berke et al. 2012, 2014, Frazier et al. 2013, Linkov et al. 2013


Analysis And Forecasting Of Mass Shootings Using Change Point Detection, Xue Lei, Cameron A. Mackenzie Jul 2019

Analysis And Forecasting Of Mass Shootings Using Change Point Detection, Xue Lei, Cameron A. Mackenzie

Cameron A. MacKenzie

Motivations

We do not know:

  • how the occurring rate of active and mass shootings changed over past few years
  • when the change of occurring rate occurred
  • the overall trend of the number of active and mass shootings over next few years


Extremes Of Nonlinear Vibration: Comparing Models Based On Moments, L-Moments, And Maximum Entropy, Steven R. Winterstein, Cameron A. Mackenzie May 2013

Extremes Of Nonlinear Vibration: Comparing Models Based On Moments, L-Moments, And Maximum Entropy, Steven R. Winterstein, Cameron A. Mackenzie

Cameron A. MacKenzie

Wind and wave loads on offshore structures show nonlinear effects, which require nonGaussian statistical models. Here we critically review the behavior of various nonGaussian models. We first survey moment-based models; in particular, the four-moment “Hermite” model, a cubic transformation often used in wind and wave applications. We then derive an “L-Hermite” model, an alternative cubic transformation calibrated by the response “L-moments” rather than its ordinary statistical moments. These L-moments have recently found increasing use, in part because they show less sensitivity to distribution tails than ordinary moments. We find here, however, that these L-moments may not convey sufficient information to ...


Evaluating The Consequences Of An Inland Waterway Port Closure With A Dynamic Multiregional Interdependence Model, Cameron A. Mackenzie, Kash Barker, F. Hank Grant Jan 2012

Evaluating The Consequences Of An Inland Waterway Port Closure With A Dynamic Multiregional Interdependence Model, Cameron A. Mackenzie, Kash Barker, F. Hank Grant

Cameron A. MacKenzie

As intermodal hubs connecting barge, train, and truck transportation modes, inland ports play an important role in U.S. and global commerce. Like coastal ports, inland ports face the risk of malevolent attacks, man-made accidents, and natural disasters. However, most port impact studies focus on the consequences of one of these disruptive events suddenly closing a coastal port. This paper examines the economic impact of suddenly closing an inland port by combining a simulation and a multiregional input-output model. The simulation models how companies may react if an inland waterway port suddenly closes, and the multiregional dynamic inoperability input-output model ...


Book Review On The Failure Of Risk Management: Why It’S Broken And How To Fix It, By Douglas W. Hubbard (2009)., Cameron A. Mackenzie Jan 2010

Book Review On The Failure Of Risk Management: Why It’S Broken And How To Fix It, By Douglas W. Hubbard (2009)., Cameron A. Mackenzie

Cameron A. MacKenzie

The title The Failure of Risk Management seemsto imply that risk management is useless. However,the subtitle Why It’s Broken and How to Fix It provides a better description of Douglas Hubbard’s contribution to the field of risk analysis. Hubbard criticizes several risk management methods currently used by a wide variety of organizations but also presents a convincing argument for why probabilistic risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation is the best approach.