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Full-Text Articles in Risk Analysis

Learning From Incidents To Reduce The Risk Of Drowning In Swimming Pools: Implementation Of Experience-Based Feedback Regarding Near-Misses In Four Public Facilities In France, Élie Vignac, Pascal Lebihain, Bastien Soulé Sep 2019

Learning From Incidents To Reduce The Risk Of Drowning In Swimming Pools: Implementation Of Experience-Based Feedback Regarding Near-Misses In Four Public Facilities In France, Élie Vignac, Pascal Lebihain, Bastien Soulé

International Journal of Aquatic Research and Education

The prevention of sports accidents must rely on a detailed knowledge of accident circumstances and risk factors. Today, very few studies have investigated in depth non-fatal drowning incidents that have occurred in public swimming pools (PSP). Learning from incidents seems likely to advance the knowledge of accident scenarios. This research study aimed to capture minor incidents that might identify safety lessons and preventive measures. Incidents of minor and major aquatic events were collected from four PSPs that had hosted 700,000 bathers per year. About 800 incidents and 300 aquatic rescues performed by lifeguards were recorded within a time frame ...


Wrack Lines Volume 19, Number 1, Spring/Summer 2019, Nancy Balcom, Syma Ebbin, David Gregorio, Richard Telford, Judy Benson Jun 2019

Wrack Lines Volume 19, Number 1, Spring/Summer 2019, Nancy Balcom, Syma Ebbin, David Gregorio, Richard Telford, Judy Benson

Wrack Lines

Issue theme is: "Making Connections: As the Climate Changes, People and Nature Intertwine in New Ways." Articles include: "As More Roads Become Rivers, Communities Search for Solutions;" "Solving an Engineering Conundrum: As Coastal Homes Get Elevated, New Research Looks at Whether Vulnerability to Wind Damage Is Increasing;" "Along the Coast, Residents Consider How to Heed Sandy's Warning of What's to Come;" "All Rivers, All Lives Run to the Sea," about the intersection of waterways and the world of nature writer Edwin Way Teale; and "Crosscurrents: Connecticut Sea Grant's Retrospective Exhibition Makes Waves," about reaching new audiences and ...


Examining Accident Reports Involving Autonomous Vehicles In California, Francesca Favaro, Nazanin Nader, Sky Eurich, Michelle Tripp, Naresh Varadaraju Sep 2017

Examining Accident Reports Involving Autonomous Vehicles In California, Francesca Favaro, Nazanin Nader, Sky Eurich, Michelle Tripp, Naresh Varadaraju

Faculty Publications

Autonomous Vehicle technology is quickly expanding its market and has found in Silicon Valley, California, a strong foothold for preliminary testing on public roads. In an effort to promote safety and transparency to consumers, the California Department of Motor Vehicles has mandated that reports of accidents involving autonomous vehicles be drafted and made available to the public. The present work shows an in-depth analysis of the accident reports filed by different manufacturers that are testing autonomous vehicles in California (testing data from September 2014 to March 2017). The data provides important information on autonomous vehicles accidents’ dynamics, related to the ...


Nuclear Power: Black Sky Liability Or Black Sky Asset?, Sherrell R. Greene Dec 2016

Nuclear Power: Black Sky Liability Or Black Sky Asset?, Sherrell R. Greene

International Journal of Nuclear Security

Ready access to abundant electricity is a key enabler of modern life. During the past decade the vulnerability of Critical Infrastructure sectors in the U.S. to a variety of natural hazards and man-made threats has become increasingly apparent. The electrical infrastructure (the “Grid”) is the foundation for all other critical civil infrastructures upon which our society depends. Therefore, protection of the Grid is an energy security, homeland security, and national security issue of highest importance. Geomagnetic disturbances (GMD) induced by solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs), electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attacks, and cyber attacks are three events having the potential to ...


A Study On The Effectiveness Of The Ism Code Through A Comparative Analysis Of Ism And Psc Data, Min-Jung Lee Nov 2016

A Study On The Effectiveness Of The Ism Code Through A Comparative Analysis Of Ism And Psc Data, Min-Jung Lee

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.


The Fda And The Regulation Of Medical Device Innovation: A Problem Of Information, Risk, And Access, Matthew Grennan, Robert J Town Feb 2016

The Fda And The Regulation Of Medical Device Innovation: A Problem Of Information, Risk, And Access, Matthew Grennan, Robert J Town

Wharton Public Policy Initiative Issue Briefs

Are FDA premarket trials on new drugs and medical devices excessive and do they inhibit consumer access to new and much-needed technologies? Or may they actually be insufficient and expose consumers to too much risk? To address this question, the new research described here compares the regulatory approaches of the U.S. and the European Union for second and third generation coronary stents. The research supports the FDA’s argument that reductions in their standards for device approval would reduce consumer welfare. Nevertheless, the research also suggests that in some circumstances, FDA reform proposals advocating for more relaxed premarket requirements ...


A Decision Model For Recommending Which Building Occupants Should Move Where During Fire Emergencies, Norman E. Groner Jan 2016

A Decision Model For Recommending Which Building Occupants Should Move Where During Fire Emergencies, Norman E. Groner

Publications and Research

This paper describes a decision model for managing the movement of building occupants during fire emergencies. Currently available guidance from standard practice, egress modeling, codes and the re-search literature, is too general to provide much help to persons charged with the responsibility of where groups of occupants should be located given a fire scenario. The occupant movement decision model described in the paper uses three basic yes–no questions to divide building occupants into groups during a fire emergency. For any particular group, the decision model recommends one of two basic actions:(1) people remain where they are already located ...


From Human Reliability To Resilience & System Performance - Adapting To A Changing World, Gesa Praetorius, Fulko C. Van Westrenen Oct 2015

From Human Reliability To Resilience & System Performance - Adapting To A Changing World, Gesa Praetorius, Fulko C. Van Westrenen

Gesa Praetorius

Presentation given at the IALA Human Factors in VTS workshop, 11 October 2015, Gothenburg, Sweden.


Interpreting, Stephanie Jo Kent May 2014

Interpreting, Stephanie Jo Kent

Doctoral Dissertations

What do community interpreting for the Deaf in western societies, conference interpreting for the European Parliament, and language brokering in international management have in common? Academic research and professional training have historically emphasized the linguistic and cognitive challenges of interpreting, neglecting or ignoring the social aspects that structure communication. All forms of interpreting are inherently social; they involve relationships among at least three people and two languages. The contexts explored here, American Sign Language/English interpreting and spoken language interpreting within the European Parliament, show that simultaneous interpreting involves attitudes, norms and values about intercultural communication that overemphasize information and ...


Quantifying Risks Of Climate Change And Sea Level Rise To Naval Station Norfolk (Serdp Rc-1701), Kelly Burks-Copes Oct 2013

Quantifying Risks Of Climate Change And Sea Level Rise To Naval Station Norfolk (Serdp Rc-1701), Kelly Burks-Copes

October 2, 2013: Quantifying Risks and Moving Forward

No abstract provided.


Issue Brief: Saving By Mitigating, University Of Louisville, New England Environmental Finance Center Sep 2013

Issue Brief: Saving By Mitigating, University Of Louisville, New England Environmental Finance Center

Sustainable Communities Capacity Building

Natural disasters can cause loss of life, inflict damage to buildings and infrastructure, and have devastating consequences for a community’s economic, social, and environmental well-being. Hazard mitigation means reducing damages from disasters.

Local governments have the responsibility to protect the health, safety, and welfare of their citizens. Proactive mitigation policies and actions help reduce risk and create safer, more disaster-resilient communities. Mitigation is an investment in your community’s future safety, equity, and sustainability.


A Prototype Decision Support Tool For Ballast Water Risk Management Using A Combination Of Hydrodynamic Models And Agent-Based Modelling, Fleming T. Hansen, Jesper H. Andersen, Michael Potthof, Thomas Uhrenholdt, Hong D. Vo, Olof Lindén Jul 2013

A Prototype Decision Support Tool For Ballast Water Risk Management Using A Combination Of Hydrodynamic Models And Agent-Based Modelling, Fleming T. Hansen, Jesper H. Andersen, Michael Potthof, Thomas Uhrenholdt, Hong D. Vo, Olof Lindén

NSBWO

We report the development of a prototype Decision Support Tool (DST) for modelling the risks of spreading of non-indegenous invasive species via ballast water. The DST constitutes of two types of models: A 3D hydrodynamical model calculates the currents in the North Sea and Danish Straits, and an agent-based model estimates the dispersal of selected model organisms with the prevailing currents calculated by the 3D hydrodynamical model. The analysis is concluded by a post processing activity, where scenarios of dispersal are combined into an interim estimate of connectivity within the study area. The latter can be used as a tool ...


From Cyber Terrorism To State Actors’ Covert Cyber Operations, Jan Kallberg, Bhavani Thuraisingham Mar 2013

From Cyber Terrorism To State Actors’ Covert Cyber Operations, Jan Kallberg, Bhavani Thuraisingham

Jan Kallberg

Historically, since the Internet started to become a common feature in our lives, hackers have been seen as a major threat. This view has repeatedly been entrenched and distributed by media coverage and commentaries through the years. Instead the first twenty year of the Internet was acceptably secure, due to the limited abilities of the attackers, compared to the threat generated from a militarized Internet with state actors conducting cyber operations. In reality, the Internet have a reversed trajectory for its security where it has become more unsafe over time and moved from a threat to the individual to a ...


Nuclear Deterrence In A Second Obama Term, Adam Lowther, Jan Kallberg Mar 2013

Nuclear Deterrence In A Second Obama Term, Adam Lowther, Jan Kallberg

Jan Kallberg

In the months prior to the 2012 presidential election in the United States, members of the Obama administration and sympathetic organizations inside the Beltway began floating the idea that the administration would pursue – after an Obama victory – further reductions in the US nuclear arsenal. With the ink still wet on the New ST ART Treaty, efforts to reduce the American arsenal to 1000 operationally deployed strategic nuclear weapons or, as some suggest, 500, is certainly premature. These efforts illustrate a poor understanding of nuclear deterrence theory and practice and the ramifications of a United States that lacks a credible nuclear ...


Offensive Cyber: Superiority Or Stuck In Legal Hurdles?, Jan Kallberg Feb 2013

Offensive Cyber: Superiority Or Stuck In Legal Hurdles?, Jan Kallberg

Jan Kallberg

In recent years, offensive cyber operations have attracted significant interest from the non-Defense Department academic legal community, prompting numerous articles seeking to create a legal theory for cyber conflicts. Naturally, cyber operations should be used in an ethical way, but the hurdles generated by the legal community are staggering. At a time when the United States has already lost an estimated $4 trillion in intellectual property as a result of foreign cyber espionage, not to mention the loss of military advantage, focusing on what the United States cannot do in cyberspace only hinders efforts to defend the country from future ...


Europe In A ‘Nato Light’ World - Building Affordable And Credible Defense For The Eu, Jan Kallberg, Adam Lowther Jan 2013

Europe In A ‘Nato Light’ World - Building Affordable And Credible Defense For The Eu, Jan Kallberg, Adam Lowther

Jan Kallberg

From an outsider’s perspective, the Common Security and Defense Policy and the efforts of the European Defense Agency are insufficient to provide Europe with the defense it will require in coming decades. While the European Union—particularly the members of the European Monetary Union—struggle to solve prolonged fiscal challenges, viable European security alternatives to an American-dominated security architecture are conspicuously absent from the documents and discussions that are coming from the European Council and at a time when the United States is engaged in an Asia-Pacific pivot. This is not to say that no thought has been given ...


Cyber Operations Bridging From Concept To Cyber Superiority, Jan Kallberg, Bhavani Thuraisingham Jan 2013

Cyber Operations Bridging From Concept To Cyber Superiority, Jan Kallberg, Bhavani Thuraisingham

Jan Kallberg

The United States is preparing for cyber conflicts and ushering in a new era for national security. The concept of cyber operations is rapidly developing, and the time has come to transpose the conceptual heights to a broad ability to fight a strategic cyber conflict and defend the Nation in a cohesive way. Richard M. George, a former National Security Agency official, commented on recent developments: “Other countries are preparing for a cyberwar. If we’re not pushing the envelope in cyber, somebody else will.”1 Therefore, increased budgets are allocated to cyber operations research and education. The Defense Advanced ...


Effects Of Different Methods Of Aggregation Of Probabilities On The R&D Investment Portfolio For Optimal Emissions Abatement: An Empirical Evaluation, Olaitan P. Olaleye Jan 2013

Effects Of Different Methods Of Aggregation Of Probabilities On The R&D Investment Portfolio For Optimal Emissions Abatement: An Empirical Evaluation, Olaitan P. Olaleye

Masters Theses 1911 - February 2014

This thesis examines two possible orders of combining multiple experts in elicitations with multiple de-composed events: Should experts be combined early or later in the decision process? This thesis is in conjunction with the paper (Baker & Olaleye, 2012) where we show that it is best to combine experts early as later combination leads to a systematic error. We conduct a simulation to more fully flesh out the theoretical model. We also conduct a theoretical analysis aimed at determining how significantly these two methods differ. We find that all results are in accordance with the theory but combining experts later might ...


Transaction Costs Analysis Of Low-Carbon Technologies, Luis Mundaca T., Mathilde Mansoz, Lena Neij, Govinda R. Timilsina Dec 2012

Transaction Costs Analysis Of Low-Carbon Technologies, Luis Mundaca T., Mathilde Mansoz, Lena Neij, Govinda R. Timilsina

Luis Mundaca

Transaction costs (TCs) must be taken into account when assessing the performance of policy instruments that create markets for the diffusion and commercialization of low-carbon technologies (LCTs). However, there are no comprehensive studies on the development and application of transaction cost analysis to LCTs. In this meta-analysis, a wide-ranging evaluation of TCs associated with energy efficiency, renewable energy, and carbon market technologies is provided. There is a plethora of different definitions of, and measurement techniques to estimate, TCs. There is wide variation in the quantitative estimates, which can be attributed to factors such as the definition used, data collection, quantification ...


Levees And The National Flood Insurance Program: Improving Policies And Practices Dec 2012

Levees And The National Flood Insurance Program: Improving Policies And Practices

Earthea Nance, PhD (Stanford University, 2004)

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Diseñando Colisiones De Satélites En La Guerra Cibernética Encubierta, Jan Kallberg Dec 2012

Diseñando Colisiones De Satélites En La Guerra Cibernética Encubierta, Jan Kallberg

Jan Kallberg

La guerra concentrada en la red depende de la red de información global para capacidades de combate conjuntas.3 La capa fundamental crea la capacidad de combate global como la columna vertebral espacial de la red de información donde los haberes espaciales son el elemento decisivo. EE.UU. depende de las capacidades espaciales para su éxito y la seguridad nacional de EE.UU. se basa hoy en día en un número limitado de satélites muy utilizados. Estos satélites son cruciales para la disuasión estratégica, la vigilancia, la recopilación de inteligencia y las comunicaciones militares. Si la disuasión estratégica falla, los ...


The Return Of Dr. Strangelove: How Austerity Makes Us Stop Worrying And Love The Bomb…And Cyber War, Jan Kallberg, Adam Lowther Nov 2012

The Return Of Dr. Strangelove: How Austerity Makes Us Stop Worrying And Love The Bomb…And Cyber War, Jan Kallberg, Adam Lowther

Jan Kallberg

With sequestration looming—generating significant cuts to defense spending—the United States may find itself increasingly relying on nuclear and cyber deterrence as an affordable way to guarantee national sovereignty and prevent major conflict. While earlier defense planning and acquisitions were based on economic conditions that no longer exist, Congress’ options to balance the budget by cutting defense spending are politically palatable because far fewer American are “defense voters” than “social welfare voters,” according to a number of recent public opinion surveys.


Analysis - Toward A New American Military., Adam Lowther, Jan Kallberg Oct 2012

Analysis - Toward A New American Military., Adam Lowther, Jan Kallberg

Jan Kallberg

In releasing the United States Department of Defense’s (DoD) Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense and Defense Budget Priorities and Choices in January 2012, President Barack Obama and Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta offered a rationale for the administration’s reductions in defense spending. By stating that the shift in strategic direction is an effort to “put our fiscal house in order” and a response to the 2011 Budget Control Act, which requires DoD to reduce spending by $487 billion between fiscal years 2012 and 2021, the United States’ NATO partners in Europe were given ...


The Return Of Dr. Strangelove, Jan Kallberg, Adam Lowther Aug 2012

The Return Of Dr. Strangelove, Jan Kallberg, Adam Lowther

Jan Kallberg

With the prospect of sequestration looming, the United States may find itself increasingly rely ing on nuclear and cy ber deterrence as an affordable means of guaranteeing national sovereignty and preventing major conflict between the U.S. and potential adversaries in the Asia-Pacific. While earlier defense planning and acquisition were based on economic conditions that no longer ex ist, Congress’s options to balance the budget by cutting defense spending are politically palatable because far fewer American are “defense v oters” relative to “social welfare voters,” according to a number of recent public opinion surveys. The simple fact is China ...


Common Criteria Meets Realpolitik Trust, Alliances, And Potential Betrayal, Jan Kallberg Jul 2012

Common Criteria Meets Realpolitik Trust, Alliances, And Potential Betrayal, Jan Kallberg

Jan Kallberg

Common Criteria for Information Technology Security Evaluation has the ambition to be a global standard for IT-security certification. The issued certifications are mutually recognized between the signatories of the Common Criteria Recognition Arrangement. The key element in any form of mutual relationships is trust. A question raised in this paper is how far trust can be maintained in Common Criteria when additional signatories enter with conflicting geopolitical interests to earlier signatories. Other issues raised are control over production, the lack of permanent organization in the Common Criteria, which leads to concerns of being able to oversee the actual compliance. As ...


Towards Managing And Understanding The Risk Of Underwater Terrorism, Richard J. Gay Jul 2012

Towards Managing And Understanding The Risk Of Underwater Terrorism, Richard J. Gay

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation proposes a methodology to manage and understand the risk of underwater terrorism to critical infrastructures utilizing the parameters of the risk equation. Current methods frequently rely on statistical methods, which suffer from a lack of appropriate historical data to produce distributions and do not integrate epistemic uncertainty. Other methods rely on locating subject matter experts who can provide judgment and then undertaking an associated validation of these judgments.

Using experimentation, data from unclassified successful, or near successful, underwater attacks are analyzed and instantiated as a network graph with the key characteristics of the risk of terrorism represented as ...


Towards Cyber Operations The New Role Of Academic Cyber Security Research And Education, Jan Kallberg, Bhavani Thuraisingham Jun 2012

Towards Cyber Operations The New Role Of Academic Cyber Security Research And Education, Jan Kallberg, Bhavani Thuraisingham

Jan Kallberg

Abstract – The shift towards cyber operations represents a shift not only for the defense establishments worldwide but also cyber security research and education. Traditionally cyber security research and education has been founded on information assurance, expressed in underlying subfields such as forensics, network security, and penetration testing. Cyber security research and education is connected to the homeland security agencies and defense through funding, mutual interest in the outcome of the research, and the potential job market for graduates. The future of cyber security is both defensive information assurance measures and active defense driven information operations that jointly and coordinately are ...


Emp And Geomagnetic Storm Protection Of Critical Infrastructure, George H. Baker Iii May 2012

Emp And Geomagnetic Storm Protection Of Critical Infrastructure, George H. Baker Iii

George H Baker

EMP and solar storm wide geographic coverage and ubiquitous system effects beg the question of “Where to begin?” with protection efforts. Thus, in addressing these “wide area electromagnetic (EM) effects,” we must be clever in deciding where to invest limited resources. Based on simple risk analysis, the electric power and communication infrastructures emerge as the highest priority for EM protection. Programs focused on these highest risk infrastructures will go a long way in lessoning societal impact. Given the national scope of the effects, such programs must be coordinated at the national level but implemented at local level. Because wide-area EM ...


Risk Quadruplet: Integrating Assessments Of Threat, Vulnerability, Consequence, And Perception For Homeland Security And Homeland Defense, Kara Norman Hill Apr 2012

Risk Quadruplet: Integrating Assessments Of Threat, Vulnerability, Consequence, And Perception For Homeland Security And Homeland Defense, Kara Norman Hill

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Risk for homeland security and homeland defense is often considered to be a function of threat, vulnerability, and consequence. But what is that function? And are we defining and measuring these terms consistently? Threat, vulnerability, and consequence assessments are conducted, often separately, and data from one assessment could be drastically different from that of another due to inconsistent definitions of terms and measurements, differing data collection methods, or varying data sources. It has also long been a challenge to integrate these three disparate assessments to establish an overall picture of risk to a given asset. Further, many agencies conduct these ...


Designer Satellite Collisions From Covert Cyber War, Jan Kallberg Feb 2012

Designer Satellite Collisions From Covert Cyber War, Jan Kallberg

Jan Kallberg

Outer space has enjoyed two decades of fairly peaceful development since the Cold War, but once again it is becoming more competitive and contested, with increased militarization. Therefore, it is important the United States maintain its space superiority to ensure it has the capabilities required by modern warfare for successful operations. Today is different from earlier periods of space development,1 because there is not a blatantly overt arms race in space,2 but instead a covert challenge to US interests in maintaining superiority, resilience, and capability. A finite number of states consider themselves geopolitical actors; however, as long as ...