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Full-Text Articles in Risk Analysis

A Multi-Stage Optimization Model For Flexibility In Engineering Design, Ramin Giahi, Cameron A. Mackenzie, Chao Hu Oct 2019

A Multi-Stage Optimization Model For Flexibility In Engineering Design, Ramin Giahi, Cameron A. Mackenzie, Chao Hu

Cameron A. MacKenzie

Engineered systems often operate in uncertain environments. Understanding different environments under which a system will operate is important in engineering design. Thus, there is a need to design systems with the capability to respond to future changes. This research explores designing a hybrid renewable energy system while taking into account long-range uncertainties of 20 years. The objective is to minimize the expected cost of the hybrid renewable energy system over the next 20 years. A design solution may be flexible, which means that the design can be adapted or modified to meet different scenarios in the future. The value of ...


Panel 1 Paper 1.3: Le Paysage Rural Patrimonial, Outil Et Projet Au Service De La Lutte Contre Le Réchauffement Climatique, Régis Ambroise Oct 2019

Panel 1 Paper 1.3: Le Paysage Rural Patrimonial, Outil Et Projet Au Service De La Lutte Contre Le Réchauffement Climatique, Régis Ambroise

Rural Heritage - Landscapes and Beyond / PATRIMOINE RURAL: Paysages et au-delà

Cette intervention fait référence au paragraphe de la résolution19GA 2017/30 du Conseil International des Monuments et des Sites indiquant que « la 19° Assemblée générale de l’ICOMOS… salue l’adoption de l’accord de Paris et encourage tous les membres de l’ICOMOS à renforcer leurs efforts pour appuyer sa mise en œuvre et identifier les réponses qui s’appuient sur le patrimoine ou les paysages culturels… ». Elle prend l’exemple de la façon dont les paysages de terrasses ont été abordés ces dernières années dans trois situations différentes : en France, dans le Guizhou en Chine et dans le ...


Learning From Incidents To Reduce The Risk Of Drowning In Swimming Pools: Implementation Of Experience-Based Feedback Regarding Near-Misses In Four Public Facilities In France, Élie Vignac, Pascal Lebihain, Bastien Soulé Sep 2019

Learning From Incidents To Reduce The Risk Of Drowning In Swimming Pools: Implementation Of Experience-Based Feedback Regarding Near-Misses In Four Public Facilities In France, Élie Vignac, Pascal Lebihain, Bastien Soulé

International Journal of Aquatic Research and Education

The prevention of sports accidents must rely on a detailed knowledge of accident circumstances and risk factors. Today, very few studies have investigated in depth non-fatal drowning incidents that have occurred in public swimming pools (PSP). Learning from incidents seems likely to advance the knowledge of accident scenarios. This research study aimed to capture minor incidents that might identify safety lessons and preventive measures. Incidents of minor and major aquatic events were collected from four PSPs that had hosted 700,000 bathers per year. About 800 incidents and 300 aquatic rescues performed by lifeguards were recorded within a time frame ...


Design Thinking: An Approach With Various Perceptions, Sanne Bouwman, Jesper Voorendt, Boris Eisenbart, Seda Mckilligan Aug 2019

Design Thinking: An Approach With Various Perceptions, Sanne Bouwman, Jesper Voorendt, Boris Eisenbart, Seda Mckilligan

Seda McKilligan

Design Thinking has become increasingly popular across different disciplines. However, what it exactly entails is becoming more and more vague, leading to the term being used for many different approaches and applications. This paper presents an interview study with experts on the application and training of Design Thinking in academia and industry. We find a divide with some seeing Design Thinking as a mere toolbox of methods, while others see it as an umbrella term for the mindset that determines how designers think and act. Subjects unanimously attest the approach large potential to support certain types of businesses, when applied ...


Design Thinking: An Approach With Various Perceptions, Sanne Bouwman, Jesper Voorendt, Boris Eisenbart, Seda Mckilligan Aug 2019

Design Thinking: An Approach With Various Perceptions, Sanne Bouwman, Jesper Voorendt, Boris Eisenbart, Seda Mckilligan

Industrial Design Conference Presentations, Posters and Proceedings

Design Thinking has become increasingly popular across different disciplines. However, what it exactly entails is becoming more and more vague, leading to the term being used for many different approaches and applications. This paper presents an interview study with experts on the application and training of Design Thinking in academia and industry. We find a divide with some seeing Design Thinking as a mere toolbox of methods, while others see it as an umbrella term for the mindset that determines how designers think and act. Subjects unanimously attest the approach large potential to support certain types of businesses, when applied ...


Evaluating Machine Learning Performance In Predicting Injury Severity In Agribusiness Industries, Fatemeh Davoudi Kakhki, Steven A. Freeman, Gretchen A. Mosher Aug 2019

Evaluating Machine Learning Performance In Predicting Injury Severity In Agribusiness Industries, Fatemeh Davoudi Kakhki, Steven A. Freeman, Gretchen A. Mosher

Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering Publications

Although machine learning methods have been used as an outcome prediction tool in many fields, their utilization in predicting incident outcome in occupational safety is relatively new. This study tests the performance of machine learning techniques in modeling and predicting occupational incidents severity with respect to accessible information of injured workers in agribusiness industries using workers’ compensation claims. More than 33,000 incidents within agribusiness industries in the Midwest of the United States for 2008–2016 were analyzed. The total cost of incidents was extracted and classified from workers’ compensation claims. Supervised machine learning algorithms for classification (support vector machines ...


A Value-Focused Thinking Approach To Assessing Community Resilience, Rohit Suresh, Cameron A. Mackenzie Jul 2019

A Value-Focused Thinking Approach To Assessing Community Resilience, Rohit Suresh, Cameron A. Mackenzie

Cameron A. MacKenzie

Disaster or community resilience

  • Divide resilience into 4 or 5 categories (e.g., social, infrastructure, economic, information)
  • Indicators or measures gathered at a state or regional level (20-40 measures)
  • Normalize indicators on a 0-1 scale
  • Aggregate indicators through a weighted linear additive equation (often equal weights)
  • Examples: Cutter et al. 2008, Berke et al. 2012, 2014, Frazier et al. 2013, Linkov et al. 2013


Analysis And Forecasting Of Mass Shootings Using Change Point Detection, Xue Lei, Cameron A. Mackenzie Jul 2019

Analysis And Forecasting Of Mass Shootings Using Change Point Detection, Xue Lei, Cameron A. Mackenzie

Cameron A. MacKenzie

Motivations

We do not know:

  • how the occurring rate of active and mass shootings changed over past few years
  • when the change of occurring rate occurred
  • the overall trend of the number of active and mass shootings over next few years


Transportation Safety Performance Of Us Bus Transit Agencies And Population Density: A Cross-Sectional Analysis (2008-2014), Ilker Karaca, Peter T. Savolainen Jul 2019

Transportation Safety Performance Of Us Bus Transit Agencies And Population Density: A Cross-Sectional Analysis (2008-2014), Ilker Karaca, Peter T. Savolainen

Ilker Karaca

The paper examines the transportation safety performance of transit agencies providing public bus service in the US by using data from the National Transit Database (NTD)

Uses NTD data for a seven-year period from 2008 to 2014 • 3,853 observations for 651 public transportation agencies in 50 states

Seven types of bus transit fatalities and injuries (including passengers, operators, pedestrians, bicyclists)

Main explanatory variable: urban density obtained from the US Census figures

Other explanatory variables: total agency revenue miles, unlinked passenger trips, agency fleet size, and urban population


Nchrp Synthesis 499: Alternate Design/Alternate Bid Process For Pavement-Type Selection. A Synthesis Of Highway Practice, Douglas D. Gransberg, Ashley F. Buss, Ilker Karaca, Michael C. Loulakis Jul 2019

Nchrp Synthesis 499: Alternate Design/Alternate Bid Process For Pavement-Type Selection. A Synthesis Of Highway Practice, Douglas D. Gransberg, Ashley F. Buss, Ilker Karaca, Michael C. Loulakis

Ilker Karaca

Highway administrators, engineers, and researchers often face problems for which information already exists, either in documented form or as undocumented experience and practice. This information may be fragmented, scattered, and unevaluated. As a consequence, full knowledge of what has been learned about a problem may not be brought to bear on its solution. Costly research findings may go unused, valuable experience may be overlooked, and due consideration may not be given to recommended practices for solving or alleviating the problem. There is information on nearly every subject of concern to highway administrators and engineers. Much of it derives from research ...


A Study To Determine How To Measure The Laser Safety Climate At Academic Institutions, John Settlemyer Jul 2019

A Study To Determine How To Measure The Laser Safety Climate At Academic Institutions, John Settlemyer

OTS Master's Level Projects & Papers

Statement of Problem

The purpose of this study was to determine if the laser safety climate can be measured at academic institutions and what factors would provide valid measures of the laser safety climate at academic institutions. Specifically, the study attempted to answer the following questions:

Research Questions

RQ1. Can laser safety climate be measured at academic institutions using a climate survey instrument?

RQ2. What factors should be measured by a laser safety climate instrument?

RQ3. What measures would provide actionable data for prescriptive intervention by laser safety professionals at academic institutions? (p. 4)


Top-Down Construction Cost Estimating Model Using An Artificial Neural Network, Douglas D. Gransberg, H. David Jeong, Ilker Karaca, Brendon Gardner Jun 2019

Top-Down Construction Cost Estimating Model Using An Artificial Neural Network, Douglas D. Gransberg, H. David Jeong, Ilker Karaca, Brendon Gardner

Ilker Karaca

This report contains the information and background on top-down cost estimating using artificial neural networks (ANN)_to enhance the accuracy of MDT early estimates of construction costs. Upon conducting an extensive review of MDT’s budgeting and cost estimating efforts, and following a survey of agency experts on the identification of the most salient project attributes with the dual-objectives of low effort and high accuracy, a rational method for top-down variable selection is proposed. Selected variables were further tested in their explanatory power of construction costs through the application of two cost estimating methodologies—multiple regression and artificial neural network ...


Cubelos, G., Valenzuela, B., Kularathna, S., Iliopoulos, N., Quiroz, M., Yavar, R., Henríquez, P., Bacigalupe, G., Onuki, M., Mikami, T., Cienfuegos, R., Aranguiz, R., & Esteban, M. (2019, June 26). Assessing Tsunami Awareness In Remote Coastal Towns In Northern Chile Through Community Mapping., Gonzalo Bacigalupe Jun 2019

Cubelos, G., Valenzuela, B., Kularathna, S., Iliopoulos, N., Quiroz, M., Yavar, R., Henríquez, P., Bacigalupe, G., Onuki, M., Mikami, T., Cienfuegos, R., Aranguiz, R., & Esteban, M. (2019, June 26). Assessing Tsunami Awareness In Remote Coastal Towns In Northern Chile Through Community Mapping., Gonzalo Bacigalupe

Gonzalo Bacigalupe, EdD, MPH

In 2015 and 2017 unusual ocean and atmospheric conditions produced many years’ worth of rainfall in short periods over Northern Chile’s Atacama Desert, resulting in catastrophic flooding in the town of Chañaral. However, the town is not only at risk of fluvial flooding, it is also at risk of tsunamis. Through a community mapping exercise, the authors attempted to establish the level of community awareness about tsunamis, and contrasted it with that of other types of water-related hazards facing the town (namely that of flooding due to high intensity rain). This was then compared with the results of field ...


Wrack Lines Volume 19, Number 1, Spring/Summer 2019, Nancy Balcom, Syma Ebbin, David Gregorio, Richard Telford, Judy Benson Jun 2019

Wrack Lines Volume 19, Number 1, Spring/Summer 2019, Nancy Balcom, Syma Ebbin, David Gregorio, Richard Telford, Judy Benson

Wrack Lines

Issue theme is: "Making Connections: As the Climate Changes, People and Nature Intertwine in New Ways." Articles include: "As More Roads Become Rivers, Communities Search for Solutions;" "Solving an Engineering Conundrum: As Coastal Homes Get Elevated, New Research Looks at Whether Vulnerability to Wind Damage Is Increasing;" "Along the Coast, Residents Consider How to Heed Sandy's Warning of What's to Come;" "All Rivers, All Lives Run to the Sea," about the intersection of waterways and the world of nature writer Edwin Way Teale; and "Crosscurrents: Connecticut Sea Grant's Retrospective Exhibition Makes Waves," about reaching new audiences and ...


Computer Vision Machine Learning And Future-Oriented Ethics, Abagayle Lee Blank Jun 2019

Computer Vision Machine Learning And Future-Oriented Ethics, Abagayle Lee Blank

Honors Projects

Computer Vision Machine Learning (CVML) in the application of facial recognition is currently being researched, developed, and deployed across the world. It is of interest to governments, technology companies, and consumers. However, fundamental issues remain related to human rights, error rates, and bias. These issues have the potential to create societal backlash towards the technology which could limit its benefits as well as harm people in the process. To develop facial recognition technology that will be beneficial to society in and beyond the next decade, society must put ethics at the forefront. Drawing on AI4People’s adaption of bioethics for ...


Methods For Using Manpower To Assess Usaf Strategic Risk, Calvin J. Bradshaw Iii Jun 2019

Methods For Using Manpower To Assess Usaf Strategic Risk, Calvin J. Bradshaw Iii

Theses and Dissertations

With limited personnel resource funding availability, senior US Air Force (USAF) decision makers struggle to base enterprise resource allocation from rigorous analytical traceability. There are over 240 career fields in the USAF spanning 12 enterprises. Each enterprise develops annual risk assessments by distinctive core capabilities. A core capability (e.g. Research and Development) is an enabling function necessary for the USAF to perform its mission as part of the Department of Defense (DOD). Assessing risk at the core capability is a good start to assessing risk, but is still not comprehensiveness enough. One of the twelve enterprises has linked its ...


The Performance Cost Of Security, Lucy R. Bowen Jun 2019

The Performance Cost Of Security, Lucy R. Bowen

Master's Theses and Project Reports

Historically, performance has been the most important feature when optimizing computer hardware. Modern processors are so highly optimized that every cycle of computation time matters. However, this practice of optimizing for performance at all costs has been called into question by new microarchitectural attacks, e.g. Meltdown and Spectre. Microarchitectural attacks exploit the effects of microarchitectural components or optimizations in order to leak data to an attacker. These attacks have caused processor manufacturers to introduce performance impacting mitigations in both software and silicon.

To investigate the performance impact of the various mitigations, a test suite of forty-seven different tests was ...


Secure Gaming Operation With A Risk Based Approach – The Brazilian State Lottery Case., Itamar Pereira May 2019

Secure Gaming Operation With A Risk Based Approach – The Brazilian State Lottery Case., Itamar Pereira

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Security and integrity are the corner stone of a well-succeeded operation in gaming industry. It is the same for the particular case of state lotteries operation that have in the consumers´ liability the propelling force to it survives along the years. In that direction, we propose to analyze the concreate case of Brazilian state lottery (Loteria Federal) - in a operation for more than 55 years inside a bank – that in 2012 was certified by the World Lottery Association (WLA), a certification that has its bases in risk analysis as a mechanism to point out the mitigation of weaknesses and to ...


Responding To Some Challenges Posed By The Re-Identification Of Anonymized Personal Data, Herman T. Tavani, Frances S. Grodzinsky May 2019

Responding To Some Challenges Posed By The Re-Identification Of Anonymized Personal Data, Herman T. Tavani, Frances S. Grodzinsky

Computer Ethics - Philosophical Enquiry (CEPE) Proceedings

In this paper, we examine a cluster of ethical controversies generated by the re-identification of anonymized personal data in the context of big data analytics, with particular attention to the implications for personal privacy. Our paper is organized into two main parts. Part One examines some ethical problems involving re-identification of personally identifiable information (PII) in large data sets. Part Two begins with a brief description of Moor and Weckert’s Dynamic Ethics (DE) and Nissenbaum’s Contextual Integrity (CI) Frameworks. We then investigate whether these frameworks, used together, can provide us with a more robust scheme for analyzing privacy ...


Difference Between Algorithmic Processing And The Process Of Lifeworld (Lebenswelt), Domenico Schneider May 2019

Difference Between Algorithmic Processing And The Process Of Lifeworld (Lebenswelt), Domenico Schneider

Computer Ethics - Philosophical Enquiry (CEPE) Proceedings

The following article compares the temporality of the life-world with the digital processing. The temporality of the life-world is determined to be stretched and spontaneous. The temporality of the digital is given by discrete step-by-step points of time. Most ethical issues can be traced back to a mismatch of these two ways of processing. This creates a foundation for the ethics of the digital processing. Methodologically, phenomenological considerations are merged with media-philosophical considerations in the article.


Keeping Anonymity At The Consumer Behavior On The Internet: Proof Of Sacrifice, Sachio Horie May 2019

Keeping Anonymity At The Consumer Behavior On The Internet: Proof Of Sacrifice, Sachio Horie

Computer Ethics - Philosophical Enquiry (CEPE) Proceedings

The evolution of the Internet and AI technology has made it possible for the government and the businesses to keep track of their personal lives. GAFA continues to collect information unintended by the individuals. It is a threat that our privacy is violated in this way. In order to solute such problems, it is important to consider a mechanism that enables us to be peaceful lives while protecting privacy in the Internet society.

This paper focuses on the consumption behavior on the Internet and addresses anonymity. We consider some network protocols that enable sustainable consensus by combining anonymity methods such ...


On The Responsibility For Uses Of Downstream Software, Marty J. Wolf, Keith W. Miller, Frances S. Grodzinsky May 2019

On The Responsibility For Uses Of Downstream Software, Marty J. Wolf, Keith W. Miller, Frances S. Grodzinsky

Computer Ethics - Philosophical Enquiry (CEPE) Proceedings

In this paper we explore an issue that is different from whether developers are responsible for the direct impact of the software they write. We examine, instead, in what ways, and to what degree, developers are responsible for the way their software is used “downstream.” We review some key scholarship analyzing responsibility in computing ethics, including some recent work by Floridi. We use an adaptation of a mechanism developed by Floridi to argue that there are features of software that can be used as guides to better distinguish situations where a software developer might share in responsibility for the software ...


Legal And Technical Issues For Text And Data Mining In Greece, Maria Kanellopoulou - Botti, Marinos Papadopoulos, Christos Zampakolas, Paraskevi Ganatsiou May 2019

Legal And Technical Issues For Text And Data Mining In Greece, Maria Kanellopoulou - Botti, Marinos Papadopoulos, Christos Zampakolas, Paraskevi Ganatsiou

Computer Ethics - Philosophical Enquiry (CEPE) Proceedings

Web harvesting and archiving pertains to the processes of collecting from the web and archiving of works that reside on the Web. Web harvesting and archiving is one of the most attractive applications for libraries which plan ahead for their future operation. When works retrieved from the Web are turned into archived and documented material to be found in a library, the amount of works that can be found in said library can be far greater than the number of works harvested from the Web. The proposed participation in the 2019 CEPE Conference aims at presenting certain issues related to ...


Analysis Of Computer Audit Data To Create Indicators Of Compromise For Intrusion Detection, Steven Millett, Michael Toolin, Justin Bates May 2019

Analysis Of Computer Audit Data To Create Indicators Of Compromise For Intrusion Detection, Steven Millett, Michael Toolin, Justin Bates

SMU Data Science Review

Network security systems are designed to identify and, if possible, prevent unauthorized access to computer and network resources. Today most network security systems consist of hardware and software components that work in conjunction with one another to present a layered line of defense against unauthorized intrusions. Software provides user interactive layers such as password authentication, and system level layers for monitoring network activity. This paper examines an application monitoring network traffic that attempts to identify Indicators of Compromise (IOC) by extracting patterns in the network traffic which likely corresponds to unauthorized access. Typical network log data and construct indicators are ...


A Unified Risk-Based Framework For Assessing Sustainability And Resiliency Of Civil Infrastructure, Thomas Adam Robbins May 2019

A Unified Risk-Based Framework For Assessing Sustainability And Resiliency Of Civil Infrastructure, Thomas Adam Robbins

Boise State University Theses and Dissertations

As of February 2019, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has reported since 1880 the average global temperature has increased 1°C, with the warmest year on record being 2016. As the years continue to pass, it is becoming more evident that climate change is occurring, which is known to be a catalyst for climatic weather events. Statistically speaking, these events are more prevalent, and catastrophic exemplified as hurricanes, earthquakes, flooding, and fires. In addition to the increase of potentially catastrophic events, society as a whole has become more conscientious in the use and preservation of natural resources, waste ...


Underground Storage Tank Impact Model, Amy Telck Apr 2019

Underground Storage Tank Impact Model, Amy Telck

Carroll College Student Undergraduate Research Festival

Leaking underground storage tanks (UST) pose a threat to the surround- ing environment and population. The Montana Department of Environmental Quality has completed two phases of a risk analysis with the purpose of identifying the USTs at the greatest risk of leaking in order to reallocate department resources. This analysis builds upon prior analyses in three ways: (1) identify how UST upgrades can reduce the risk of UST leaking, (2) how UST characteristics and upgrades relate to the cost of remediation, and (3) estimating the environmental impact of a release.


Seismic Performance Of Earth Slopes Subjected To Earthquake Mainshock – Aftershock Sequences, Alisha Khanal Apr 2019

Seismic Performance Of Earth Slopes Subjected To Earthquake Mainshock – Aftershock Sequences, Alisha Khanal

Civil Engineering Theses

Mainshocks are usually followed by aftershocks. Aftershocks continue over a period of time with a decreasing frequency and there is not sufficient time for repair and retrofit between a mainshock – aftershock sequence. Typically, aftershocks are smaller in magnitude; however, aftershock ground motion characteristics such as the intensity and duration can be greater than the mainshock due to the changes in the earthquake mechanism and location with respect to the site. The seismic performance of slopes is typically evaluated based on the sliding displacement predicted to occur along a critical sliding surface. Various empirical models are available that predict sliding displacement ...


Left Turn Safety: Preventing Injury And Death Through Signs And Signaling, Elizabeth Webb Apr 2019

Left Turn Safety: Preventing Injury And Death Through Signs And Signaling, Elizabeth Webb

Student Writing

Thousands of accidents each year are precipitated by drivers making a left turn within an intersection. These accidents tend to be caused primarily by driver error, confusing signaling or high rates of speed by through traffic. Extensive research suggests that reducing the rate of speed of through traffic, implementing warning signs with flashers along a roadway, adjusting the traffic signal phasing at an intersection, and utilizing creative intersection designs are all options which are available to combat these concerns and substantially minimize risks to all drivers. A recent fatal accident in Spotsylvania County highlights the need for intersection improvement at ...


Hazard And Operability Analysis Of An Ethylene Oxide Production Plant, Samantha Ciricillo Apr 2019

Hazard And Operability Analysis Of An Ethylene Oxide Production Plant, Samantha Ciricillo

Senior Theses

The purpose of this work was to evaluate potential hazards and failures as part of the design and economic analysis for a chemical plant that would produce 150,000 tons of ethylene oxide per year. The Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) method of analysis was used to accomplish this goal. This method of hazard analysis involves brainstorming potential errors in a system by examining each element of each process unit in full detail. This project was focused on the reactor unit because the reactor has several important parameters that could fail, resulting in safety issues within the system. Input for this ...


An Investigation Of General Criteria For Assessing Space Flight Systems Of Diverse Mission Concept Designs, Cindy L. Daniels Apr 2019

An Investigation Of General Criteria For Assessing Space Flight Systems Of Diverse Mission Concept Designs, Cindy L. Daniels

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The purpose of this research is to investigate the general criteria for assessing the technical implementation risk factors of proposed space science missions at the mission concept stage. According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Space Flight Program and Project Management Handbook (NASA, 2012), the mission concept review objectives are “To evaluate the feasibility of the proposed mission concept(s) and its fulfillment of the program's needs and objectives. To determine whether the maturity of the concept and associated planning are sufficient to begin Phase A” (p.33). Experts previously defined two technical risk factors, to assess ...