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CMC Senior Theses

Housing starts

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Forecasting The Inland Empire's Economic Recovery, Jesse C. Franklin Jan 2010

Forecasting The Inland Empire's Economic Recovery, Jesse C. Franklin

CMC Senior Theses

The Inland Empire -Riverside and San Bernardino Counties - was one of the hardest hit areas in all of the United States during the Great Recession. Home prices have declined over 50%, significantly more than the 25% decline in the surrounding Los Angeles County, and housing starts have declined to over 90% from 2005. The Inland Empire has one of the highest unemployment rates in the US at 14.8%. This paper attempts to forecast the recovery for the Inland Empire. Employing univariate forecasts along with VAR(12) forecasts, focusing on housing starts and unemployment rates as the underlying variables, we ...