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Incorporating A New Class Of Uncertainty In Disaster Relief Logistics Planning, Emre Kirac 2016 University of Arkansas, Fayetteville

Incorporating A New Class Of Uncertainty In Disaster Relief Logistics Planning, Emre Kirac

Theses and Dissertations

In recent years, there has been a growing interest among emergency managers in using Social data in disaster response planning. However, the trustworthiness and reliability of posted information are two of the most significant concerns, because much of the user-generated data is initially not verified. Therefore, a key tradeoff exists for emergency managers when considering whether to incorporate Social data in disaster planning efforts. By considering Social data, a larger number of needs can be identified in a shorter amount of time, potentially enabling a faster response and satisfying a class of demand that might not otherwise be discovered. However ...


A System-Of-Systems Framework For Assessment Of Resilience In Complex Construction Projects, Jin Zhu 2016 Florida International University

A System-Of-Systems Framework For Assessment Of Resilience In Complex Construction Projects, Jin Zhu

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Uncertainty is a major reason of low efficiency in construction projects. Traditional approaches in dealing with uncertainty in projects focus on risk identification, mitigation, and transfer. These risk-based approaches may protect projects from identified risks. However, they cannot ensure the success of projects in environments with deep uncertainty. Hence, there is a need for a paradigm shift from risk-based to resilience-based approaches. A resilience-based approach focuses on enhancing project resilience as a capability to cope with known and unknown uncertainty. The objective of this research is to fill the knowledge gap and create the theory of resilience in the context ...


A Model Of Human Harm From A Falling Unmanned Aircraft: Implications For Uas Regulation, Andrew V. Shelley 2016 Aviation Safety Management Systems Ltd, Andrew Shelley Economic Consulting Ltd

A Model Of Human Harm From A Falling Unmanned Aircraft: Implications For Uas Regulation, Andrew V. Shelley

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

This paper quantifies the human harm, in the form of fatalities and skull fractures, which could occur as a result of an unmanned aircraft falling from a height. The analysis is used to establish the maximum height at which an unmanned aircraft can be flown over people to achieve a level of safety consistent with the rate of ground fatalities from General Aviation. The maximum height is dependent on the aircraft mass and the population density of people on the ground below.

The results are used to inform a critical evaluation of recent recommendations from the FAA-chartered “Unmanned Aircraft Systems ...


A Risk Based Framework For Evaluating Gated Spillway Operations, Greg Paxson, Marty McCann Jr, Mark Landis 2016 Stanford University

A Risk Based Framework For Evaluating Gated Spillway Operations, Greg Paxson, Marty Mccann Jr, Mark Landis

International Symposium on Hydraulic Structures

Gated spillways are often necessary to provide both operational flexibility and discharge capacity to pass large flood events. However, gated spillways present operational challenges to dam owners and operators, often necessitating development of a flood operations plan (FOP) that is used in tandem with the dam’s emergency action plan (EAP). Even a well-intentioned and robust FOP/EAP can require personnel to predict flooding, use judgment particular to the requirements of the plan, and react quickly. In addition, all of the equipment required to operate the gates need to function as designed and be operated in accordance with the FOP ...


Well I'Ll Be Damned - Insights Into Predictive Value Of Pedigree Information In Horse Racing, Timothy Baker Mr, Ming-Chien Sung, Johnnie Johnson Professor, Tiejun Ma 2016 University of Southampton

Well I'Ll Be Damned - Insights Into Predictive Value Of Pedigree Information In Horse Racing, Timothy Baker Mr, Ming-Chien Sung, Johnnie Johnson Professor, Tiejun Ma

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Fundamental form characteristics like how fast a horse ran at its last start, are widely used to help predict the outcome of horse racing events. The exception being in races where horses haven’t previously competed, such as Maiden races, where there is little or no publicly available past performance information. In these types of events bettors need only consider a simplified suite of factors however this is offset by a higher level of uncertainty. This paper examines the inherent information content embedded within a horse’s ancestry and the extent to which this information is discounted in the United ...


Quantitative Risk Evaluation Of Obstacle Limitation Surfaces For Final Approaches At Airports, Amila SIlva, Alexandre G. de Barros 2016 University of Calgary

Quantitative Risk Evaluation Of Obstacle Limitation Surfaces For Final Approaches At Airports, Amila Silva, Alexandre G. De Barros

Journal of Aviation Technology and Engineering

Obstacle limitation surfaces (OLS) are the main safeguard against objects that can pose a hazard to aircraft operations at and around airports. The standard dimensions of the most of those surfaces were estimated using the pilot’s experience at the time when they were included in the standard documents. As a result, some of these standards may have been overestimated, while others may not provide an adequate level of safety. With airports moving to the Safety Management System (SMS) approach to design and operations safety, proper evaluation of the level of safety provided by OLS at specific sites becomes important ...


Prosense, Johnny Favazza II, Casey Glasgow, Matt Epperson 2016 California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo

Prosense, Johnny Favazza Ii, Casey Glasgow, Matt Epperson

Computer Engineering

This project aims to gather advanced data sets from MEMS sensors and GPS and deliver it to the user, who can capitalize on the data. The once negligible half-degree difference of your board barreling down a wave can be recorded from a gyro and exploited for the perfect turn. The exact speed dreaded by longboarders where speed wobbles turn into a road rash can be analysed and consequently avoided. Ascertaining the summit of your flight using combined GPS sensors from the ski ramp allows for the correct timing of tricks. When it comes to pursuing excellence in professional sports, amateur ...


Financial Performance In Upstream, Downstream, And Integrated Oil Companies In Response To Oil Price Volatility, Jonathan P. Garcia 2016 University of Arkansas, Fayetteville

Financial Performance In Upstream, Downstream, And Integrated Oil Companies In Response To Oil Price Volatility, Jonathan P. Garcia

Finance Undergraduate Honors Theses

This paper investigates the relation between crude oil price volatility and stock returns among oil companies using a three-part methodology, by using the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) as oil price benchmark. I asses the various indicators that set signals for oil price volatility and the interpretation of each (PMI, S&P500, DJIA, and World Crude Oil Output). This research also focuses on the relation between different types of companies in the oil industry (integrated, upstream, and downstream) and how each type of company will be assessed in a particular way to predict abnormal returns, based on market data and statistical ...


Influence Of Personality On Emotional Contagion Through Social Media, Theodore T. Jensen 2016 University of Connecticut - Storrs

Influence Of Personality On Emotional Contagion Through Social Media, Theodore T. Jensen

Honors Scholar Theses

The rapid growth of computers and computing technologies in the recent past has led to dramatic changes in modern social interactions. Connectivity through the internet and social networking sites is a massive part of people's lives, with younger generations learning to interact more and more through these means. It is necessary to recognize the emotional influence of these forms of communication- their influence on mental health will grow as they become a larger part of the social fabric. Facebook and other social media have been shown to be a form of emotional contagion; emotional states can be transferred from ...


Developing A Risk Analysis Model To Improve Study Abroad Awareness, Tyler Spain 2016 University of Arkansas, Fayetteville

Developing A Risk Analysis Model To Improve Study Abroad Awareness, Tyler Spain

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

As international education opportunities increase in popularity among U.S. college students (McMurtrie, 2007), it is becoming more and more necessary for study abroad organizations to be aware of the risks students face as they travel abroad. While some international cities are riskier than others, it can be difficult to distinguish between cities which truly carry a high degree of risk for visiting students, and which cities are only perceived to be risky based on various personal misconceptions. The University of Arkansas Office of Study Abroad & International Exchange currently lacks a way to quantifiably analyze the risk of study abroad ...


Modeling Supply Chain Resiliency, Jeff A. Hazel 2016 University of Arkansas, Fayetteville

Modeling Supply Chain Resiliency, Jeff A. Hazel

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

Engineered Resilient Systems (ERS) is a Department of Defense (DoD) program focusing on the effective and efficient design and development of complex engineered systems throughout their life cycle. There is a growing literature with qualitative definitions of resilience and quantitative models for systems with one performance measure. This paper uses a quantitative resilience framework (the Framework for ERS) that includes system design options, reliability, threats, vulnerabilities, responses, and consequences assessed in multiple system performance measures. The framework assists in establishing a model for any system to evaluate resiliency. This paper applies this framework using Multiple Objective Decision Analysis (MODA) to ...


Safety Management Analysis For Construction Industry: Statistical Process Control (Spc) Approach, Zhenpeng Liu 2016 Morehead State University

Safety Management Analysis For Construction Industry: Statistical Process Control (Spc) Approach, Zhenpeng Liu

Morehead State Theses and Dissertations

A Thesis Presented to the Faculty of the College of Business and Technology Morehead State University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Science by Zhenpeng Liu on April 26, 2016.


Risk Management In A Vuca Environment: Some Key Considerations, FOO S.L., Nam Sang CHENG, Nam Sang CHENG 2016 Singapore Management University

Risk Management In A Vuca Environment: Some Key Considerations, Foo S.L., Nam Sang Cheng, Nam Sang Cheng

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

Whatis VUCA? Why is it relevant to accountants, the C-suites and Board ofDirectors? Companies are in the business of taking risks for rewards. Situatedbetween the companies are in the business of taking risks for rewards. Situatedbetween the companies and the rewards are risks. Critical concepts in thisprocess are volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA), a trendymanagerial acronym that conflates the reality of the business environment and the challenges ofrisk management.


Validation And Improvement Of Reliability Methods For Air Force Building Systems, Patrick A. Deering 2016 Air Force Institute of Technology

Validation And Improvement Of Reliability Methods For Air Force Building Systems, Patrick A. Deering

Theses and Dissertations

The United States Air Force manages its civil infrastructure resource allocation via a two-dimensional risk model consisting of the consequence of failure and reliability. Air Force civil engineers currently use the BUILDER® Sustainment Management System to estimate and predict reliability at multiple levels within its civil infrastructure systems. Alley (2015) developed and validated a probabilistic model to calculate reliability at the system level. The probabilistic model was found to be a significant improvement over the currently employed BUILDER® model for four major building systems (electrical, HVAC, fire protection, and electrical). This research assessed the performance and accuracy of both the ...


A Simulation Model For Decision Support In Business Continuity Planning, Marissa Anne Mosunich 2016 California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo

A Simulation Model For Decision Support In Business Continuity Planning, Marissa Anne Mosunich

Master's Theses and Project Reports

Enterprises with a global supply network are at risk of lost revenue as a result of disruptive disasters at supplier locations. Various strategies exist for addressing this risk, and a variety of types of research has been done regarding the identification, assessment and response to the risk of disruption in a supply chain network.

This thesis establishes a decision model to support Business Continuity Planning at the first-tier supplier level. The decision model incorporates discrete-event simulation of supply chain networks (through Simio software), Monte Carlo simulation, and risk index optimization. After modeling disruption vulnerability in a supply chain network, costs ...


System Safety Modeling Of Alternative Geofencing Configurations For Small Uas, James T. Luxhoj 2016 LCR

System Safety Modeling Of Alternative Geofencing Configurations For Small Uas, James T. Luxhoj

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

As is well known, the integration of small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (sUAS) or “drones” into the National Airspace System (NAS) has captured significant industry, academic, regulatory and media attention. For sUAS that typically fly low and slow, the possibility of a mid-air collision with a nearby general aviation aircraft needs to be studied from a system safety perspective to identify possible hazards and to assess mitigations. The Aviation System Risk Model (ASRM) is a first-generation socio-technical model that uses a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) methodology to integrate possible hazards to assess a non-linear safety risk metric. Using inductive logic, the ...


The Fda And The Regulation Of Medical Device Innovation: A Problem Of Information, Risk, And Access, Matthew Grennan, Robert J Town 2016 University of Pennsylvania

The Fda And The Regulation Of Medical Device Innovation: A Problem Of Information, Risk, And Access, Matthew Grennan, Robert J Town

Penn Wharton Public Policy Initiative

Are FDA premarket trials on new drugs and medical devices excessive and do they inhibit consumer access to new and much-needed technologies? Or may they actually be insufficient and expose consumers to too much risk? To address this question, the new research described here compares the regulatory approaches of the U.S. and the European Union for second and third generation coronary stents. The research supports the FDA’s argument that reductions in their standards for device approval would reduce consumer welfare. Nevertheless, the research also suggests that in some circumstances, FDA reform proposals advocating for more relaxed premarket requirements ...


Not-So-Risky Business? Assessing The Risk Of Integrating Large Rpvs Into The Current Air Traffic System, Hans-Joachim K. Ruff-Stahl, Steven Esser, Dirk Farsch, Thomas Graner, Robert Klein, Christian Schneidt, Stefan Schoenborn 2016 Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University - Worldwide

Not-So-Risky Business? Assessing The Risk Of Integrating Large Rpvs Into The Current Air Traffic System, Hans-Joachim K. Ruff-Stahl, Steven Esser, Dirk Farsch, Thomas Graner, Robert Klein, Christian Schneidt, Stefan Schoenborn

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

In spite of considerable efforts to commercialize large remotely piloted vehicles (RPV), an integration of these RPVs into the existing Air Transportation System (ATS) and Airspace Structure is pending. The purpose of this paper was to assess the risks of an exemplary integration of a Heron 1 type RPV into the existing European air space structure within the current regulatory framework and without the availability of sense and avoid technology. Six incident occurrence scenarios were investigated, based on a modified Fault Tree Analysis and Eurocontrol’s risk matrix. It was found that without the implementation of technological or procedural changes ...


Balancing Research And Funding Using Value Of Information And Portfolio Tools For Nanomaterial Risk Classification, 2016 Selected Works

Balancing Research And Funding Using Value Of Information And Portfolio Tools For Nanomaterial Risk Classification

Jeffrey Keisler

Risk research for nanomaterials is currently prioritized by means of expert workshops and other deliberative processes. However, analytical techniques that quantify and compare alternative research investments are increasingly recommended. Here, we apply value of information and portfolio decision analysis—methods commonly applied in financial and operations management—to prioritize risk research for multiwalled carbon nanotubes and nanoparticulate silver and titanium dioxide. We modify the widely accepted CB Nanotool hazard evaluation framework, which combines nano- and bulk-material properties into a hazard score, to operate probabilistically with uncertain inputs. Literature is reviewed to develop uncertain estimates for each input parameter, and a ...


Operational Resilience: Concepts, Design And Analysis, Alexander A. Ganin, Emanuelle Massaro, Alexander Gutfraind, Nicholas Steen, Jeffrey Keisler, Alexander Kott, Rami Mangoubi, Igor Linkov 2016 University of Virginia

Operational Resilience: Concepts, Design And Analysis, Alexander A. Ganin, Emanuelle Massaro, Alexander Gutfraind, Nicholas Steen, Jeffrey Keisler, Alexander Kott, Rami Mangoubi, Igor Linkov

Jeffrey Keisler

Building resilience into today’s complex infrastructures is critical to the daily functioning of society and
its ability to withstand and recover from natural disasters, epidemics, and cyber-threats. This study
proposes quantitative measures that capture and implement the definition of engineering resilience
advanced by the National Academy of Sciences. The approach is applicable across physical, information,
and social domains. It evaluates the critical functionality, defined as a performance function of time set
by the stakeholders. Critical functionality is a source of valuable information, such as the integrated
system resilience over a time interval, and its robustness. The paper demonstrates the ...


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