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Following The Herd: An Economic Analysis Of The Effects Of Herd Mentality On The U.S. Housing Bubble, Michael P. Spicer 2011 Union College - Schenectady, NY

Following The Herd: An Economic Analysis Of The Effects Of Herd Mentality On The U.S. Housing Bubble, Michael P. Spicer

Honors Theses

One focus of economics in the recent years has been the integration of human behavior, including that of herd behavior, into economic thought. Herd behavior can be defined as the way that individuals, who have private information, end up acting together as a group inadvertently, without planned action. It is thought to be caused by incomplete information and subsequently information cascades. Does this behavior exist, and if it does, did it have any effect on the recent housing market? The last twelve years provide a good opportunity to test whether or not herd behavior exists in the housing market, and ...


Immigration And The Neighborhood, Albert Saiz, Susan M. Wachter 2011 University of Pennsylvania

Immigration And The Neighborhood, Albert Saiz, Susan M. Wachter

Real Estate Papers

Within metropolitan areas, neighborhoods of growing immigrant settlement are becoming relatively less desirable to natives. We deploy a geographic diffusion model to instrument for the growth of immigrant density in a neighborhood. Our approach deals explicitly with potential unobservable shocks that may be correlated with proximity to immigrant enclaves. The evidence is consistent with a causal interpretation of an impact from growing immigrant density to native flight and relatively slower housing value appreciation. Further evidence indicates that these results are driven more by the demand for residential segregation based on ethnicity and education than by foreignness per se.


Center For Real Estate Quarterly, Volume 5, Number 2, Portland State University. Center for Real Estate 2011 Portland State University

Center For Real Estate Quarterly, Volume 5, Number 2, Portland State University. Center For Real Estate

Center for Real Estate Quarterly

Table of Contents:
--Summary and Editorial by Eric Fruits (p. 2-4)
--Real Estate Cycles: They Exist and are Predictable by Christopher Lee (p. 5-11)
--The Coming Mini-Boom in Real Estate by Bill Conerly (p. 12-14)
--The FASB 13 Accounting Rule and Real Estate by Brian Owendoff (p. 15-20)
--Smart Growth Policies and Carbon Emissions by Todd Litman (p. 21-30)
--Residential Market Analysis by Ngan Nguyen (p. 31-52)
--Multifamily Market Analysis by Ngan Nguyen (p. 53-59)
--Office Market Analysis by David West (p. 60-68)
--Retail Market Analysis by David West (p. 69-74)
--Industrial Market Analysis by David West (p. 75-79)


Warning System For Property Bubbles, Jun YU, Peter C. B. PHILLIPS 2011 Singapore Management University

Warning System For Property Bubbles, Jun Yu, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

A commentary on what constitutes a sound system to warn against property bubbles.


Living With Terminal Capitalization Rates: A Look At Real Estate Valuation Model Parameter Setting, John B. Corgel, Hyun Seok Lee 2011 Cornell University School of Hotel Administration

Living With Terminal Capitalization Rates: A Look At Real Estate Valuation Model Parameter Setting, John B. Corgel, Hyun Seok Lee

Working Papers

This paper examines assumptions about future prices used in real estate applications of DCF models. We confirm both the widespread reliance on an ad hoc rule of increasing period-zero capitalization rates by 50 to 100 basis points to obtain terminal capitalization rates and the inability of the rule to project future real estate pricing. To understand how investors form expectations about future prices, we model the spread between the contemporaneously period-zero going-in and terminal capitalization rates and the spread between terminal rates assigned in period zero and going-in rates assigned in period N. Our regression results confirm statistical relationships between ...


Living With Terminal Capitalization Rates: A Look At Real Estate Valuation Model Parameter Setting, Jack Corgel Ph.D., Hyun Seok Lee 2011 Cornell University

Living With Terminal Capitalization Rates: A Look At Real Estate Valuation Model Parameter Setting, Jack Corgel Ph.D., Hyun Seok Lee

Cornell Real Estate and Finance Working Papers

This paper examines assumptions about future prices used in real estate applications of DCF models. We confirm both the widespread reliance on an ad hoc rule of increasing period-zero capitalization rates by 50 to 100 basis points to obtain terminal capitalization rates and the inability of the rule to project future real estate pricing. To understand how investors form expectations about future prices, we model the spread between the contemporaneously period-zero going-in and terminal capitalization rates and the spread between terminal rates assigned in period zero and going-in rates assigned in period N. Our regression results confirm statistical relationships between ...


Do Stock Prices Move Too Much To Be Justified By Changes In Dividends? Evidence From Real Estate Investment Trusts, Tobias Mühlhofer, Andrey D. Ukhov Ph.D. 2011 Indiana University

Do Stock Prices Move Too Much To Be Justified By Changes In Dividends? Evidence From Real Estate Investment Trusts, Tobias Mühlhofer, Andrey D. Ukhov Ph.D.

Cornell Real Estate and Finance Working Papers

A central issue in asset pricing is whether asset prices move too much in relation to cash flows. We take advantage of the existence of two parallel markets for a set of cash flows to show that better measurement of cash flows can dramatically improve the performance of a dynamic dividend discount model. We apply this model to returns on Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and REIT dividends. Unlike previous literature, we use out-of-sample estimation. We use a unique data set of directly held commercial real estate and augment information in REIT dividends with information from cash flows from this ...


Do Investors Flip Over Housing?, Karl L. Guntermann, Alex R. Horenstein, Crocker H. Liu Ph.D., Adam D. Nowak 2011 W.P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State

Do Investors Flip Over Housing?, Karl L. Guntermann, Alex R. Horenstein, Crocker H. Liu Ph.D., Adam D. Nowak

Cornell Real Estate and Finance Working Papers

The current study explores the investment performance of short-term investors known as flippers in the residential real estate market as well as the impact that flippers have on the housing market. The study finds that investors who buy and then subsequently resell properties within a short period of time tend to generate returns in excess of the market by purchasing properties at a discount from distressed sellers. Flippers purchase properties discounted an average of 7% in the market. This discount reflects the ability of flippers to identify underpriced properties which supports the information advantage story. When using all-cash purchases, the ...


The Quality Of Real Assets, Liquidation Value And Debt Capacity, Peng Liu Ph.D., Crocker H. Liu Ph.D. 2011 Cornell University

The Quality Of Real Assets, Liquidation Value And Debt Capacity, Peng Liu Ph.D., Crocker H. Liu Ph.D.

Cornell Real Estate and Finance Working Papers

We use real estate firms to examine how asset liquidation values influence a firm’s debt capacity, since the productivity and quality of each asset is observable and potential measures of an asset’s liquidation value are easier to ascertain ex-ante. We show that compared to firms that issue equity, firms that issue debt have higher asset quality. The effect of their expected asset liquidation value is significant, even after we control for other factors that influence financing decisions. For firms whose assets’ quality is not easily observable, we find that firms’ financing choices depend heavily on conditions in the ...


Is What’S Bad For The Goose (Tenant), Bad For The Gander (Landlord): A Retail Real Estate Perspective, Crocker L. Liu Ph.D., Peng Liu Ph.D. 2011 Cornell University

Is What’S Bad For The Goose (Tenant), Bad For The Gander (Landlord): A Retail Real Estate Perspective, Crocker L. Liu Ph.D., Peng Liu Ph.D.

Cornell Real Estate and Finance Working Papers

Given the current financial crisis, we explore the impact that tenant bankruptcies have on the risk and return performance of their publicly traded landlord. We focus on retail REITs since the contracting mechanism associated with retail leases has several options such as percentage rents and co-tenancy provisions that are not found in leases for other property types. Ex-ante, we argue that the performance of a landlord will depend on which option dominates given that a departure of an anchor or key tenant from a center affords the landlord with a growth option, the opportunity to adjust rents to market. Utilizing ...


Proposed Greenway Of Hatfield, Massachusetts - La497c - Senior Studio, Matthew G. Bent, Henry A. Hess, Andre E. Belperron 2011 University of Massachusetts - Amherst

Proposed Greenway Of Hatfield, Massachusetts - La497c - Senior Studio, Matthew G. Bent, Henry A. Hess, Andre E. Belperron

Landscape Architecture & Regional Planning Studio and Student Research and Creative Activity

This is one of five reports submitted for the LA497C Spring 2011 Senior Studio project.

This proposed greenway plan will be assessing the features of Hatfield such as, History, natural features, and open space within the town. After a thorough assessment of the towns features the report will cover the extensive proposed greenway plan, focusing mostly on the town center of Hatfield. The town center is the hub of the town where the major community buildings are such as the elementary and high schools, town hall, the town library, and most of the public recreation fields. Once the overall greenway ...


Cross Border Business Cycle Impacts On El Paso Real Estate: 1970-2003, Gokce Kincal, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., James H. Holcomb, Martha Patricia Barraza de Anda 2011 Harvey Economics

Cross Border Business Cycle Impacts On El Paso Real Estate: 1970-2003, Gokce Kincal, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., James H. Holcomb, Martha Patricia Barraza De Anda

Border Region Modeling Project

There is comparatively little empirical evidence regarding the impacts of cross border business cycle fluctuations on metropolitan housing markets located near international boundaries. This study examines the impacts of economic conditions in Mexico on sales of existing single-family houses in El Paso, Texas. Anecdotal evidence suggests that these impacts are fairly notable. Annual frequency data from The University of Texas at El Paso Border Region Modeling Project are used to test this possibility. Results indicate that solid empirical evidence of such a linkage is elusive and additional analysis is warranted.


Interview With Steven Ribeiro, Aldeia Development, 2011 (Audio), Steven Ribeiro 2011 Portland State University

Interview With Steven Ribeiro, Aldeia Development, 2011 (Audio), Steven Ribeiro

All Sustainability History Project Oral Histories

Interview of Steven Ribeiro by John Stephenson in Salem, Oregon on February 18th, 2011.

The interview index is available for download.


Supply Elasticity Of Housing, Kyunghwan KIM, Sock-Yong PHANG, Susan WACHTER 2011 Sogang University

Supply Elasticity Of Housing, Kyunghwan Kim, Sock-Yong Phang, Susan Wachter

PHANG Sock Yong

The supply elasticity of housing determines how quickly house prices respond to economic shocks and this has many real economic consequences. Malpezzi and Maclennan (2001) describes its importance in housing market analysis: „most housing models, and most policy analysis hinge on explicit or implicit estimates of the price elasticity of supply of housing: does the market respond to demand side shocks with more supply or higher prices‟. However, as pointed out by Quigley (1979), there exist real analytical difficulties in modeling the supply of housing. Attempting to measure the flow of housing services provided by the stock of housing is ...


Environmental Problems Of Industrialization And Sustainable Development In Nigeria - A Review, Adejoh Iyaji 2011 SelectedWorks

Environmental Problems Of Industrialization And Sustainable Development In Nigeria - A Review, Adejoh Iyaji

Confluence Journal Environmental Studies (CJES), Kogi State University, Nigeria

The main objective of this paper is to examine the impact of the quest for industrialization on the environment in Nigeria; others include, the identification of the objectives of sustainable development as well as making recommendations that will lead to the much needed sustainable environment both for the present generation and generations yet unborn. The researcher relied principally on secondary sources of data for this paper which is theoretical in approach. Findings revealed the emergence of a host of environmental problems such as air pollution, deforestation, desertification, solid and hazardous waste problems in the wake of the quest for industrialization ...


On The Hybrid Nature Of Reits, Walter I. Boudry Ph.D., N. Edward Coulson, Jarl G. Kallberg, Crocker H. Liu Ph.D. 2011 Cornell University

On The Hybrid Nature Of Reits, Walter I. Boudry Ph.D., N. Edward Coulson, Jarl G. Kallberg, Crocker H. Liu Ph.D.

Cornell Real Estate and Finance Working Papers

The consensus that emerges from the current research on the linkage between securitized and direct investment in real estate is that direct (private) real estate returns play a relatively minor role in the real estate investment trust (REIT) return generating process. However, this result may at least partially be due to the coarseness of the measures of direct real estate returns or the relatively short return horizons used in previous studies. This study takes a different and unique perspective. Unlike earlier studies we do not use aggregated, average appraisal based returns on direct real estate investment. Instead, we use the ...


Center For Real Estate Quarterly, Volume 5, Number 1, Portland State University. Center for Real Estate 2011 Portland State University

Center For Real Estate Quarterly, Volume 5, Number 1, Portland State University. Center For Real Estate

Center for Real Estate Quarterly

Table of Contents:
--Compact Development and Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Eric Fruits (p. 2-7)
--Center for Real Estate Alumni Profile: Alexandra Ionescu (p. 8-9)
--Office Market Analysis by David West (p. 10-20)
--Retail Market Analysis by David West (p, 21-26)
--Industrial Market Analysis by David West (p. 27-31)
--Multifamily Market Analysis by Ngan Nguyen (p. 32-39)
--Residential Market Analysis by Ngan Nguyen (p. 40-64)


Spatial Distribution Of Commercial Banks In Ilorin Metropolis, Kwara State, Nigeria, I B. Abdullahi, M A. Ijaiya, A Abdulraheem, R I. Abdulkadir, R O. Ibrahim 2011 University of Ilorin, Nigeria

Spatial Distribution Of Commercial Banks In Ilorin Metropolis, Kwara State, Nigeria, I B. Abdullahi, M A. Ijaiya, A Abdulraheem, R I. Abdulkadir, R O. Ibrahim

Confluence Journal of Environmental Studies (CJES), Kogi State University, Nigeria

The spatial distribution of banks in any geographic entity determines the level of accessibility to its services by the public. This study examined the pattern of banks distribution in Ilorin metropolis. Field survey was employed in determining the number of available commercial banks and their respective distances between each other. The spatial analysis technique such as the nearest neighbour analysis as used ascertain the degree of clustering, density and the average distance taken to access these services. The study revealed that about 96% of the total number of banks are situated in the Central Business District which exhibited a very ...


California Dreamin’: The Feeble Case For Cluster Policies, Gilles Duranton 2011 University of Pennsylvania

California Dreamin’: The Feeble Case For Cluster Policies, Gilles Duranton

Real Estate Papers

This study examines the case for cluster policy. This case is theoretically ambiguous and empirically very weak.


Subprime Lending And Real Estate Prices, Andrey Pavlov, Susan M. Wachter 2011 University of Pennsylvania

Subprime Lending And Real Estate Prices, Andrey Pavlov, Susan M. Wachter

Real Estate Papers

This article establishes a theoretical and empirical link between the use of aggressive mortgage lending instruments, such as interest-only, negative-amortization or subprime mortgages, and the underlying house prices. Such instruments, which come into existence through innovation or financial deregulation, allow more borrowing than otherwise would occur in previously affordability-constrained markets. Within the context of a model with an endogenous rent-buy decision, we demonstrate that the supply of aggressive lending instruments temporarily increases the asset prices in the underlying market because agents find it more attractive to own or because their borrowing constraint is relaxed, or both. This result implies that ...


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