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The Impact Of Immigration On Financial Markets, Jesse Baker 2019 Utah State University

The Impact Of Immigration On Financial Markets, Jesse Baker

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports

This paper studies the impact of immigration policy on financial markets. I estimate the cumulative abnormal returns surrounding two events the effective start date of the Immigration Act of 1990 and the implementation of the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) of Nicaragua and Honduras in 1999. Focusing on agriculture, construction, and manufacturing firms, I find that the CARs surrounding the events are indeed positive and significant, suggesting that the market anticipated growth among industries that are likely to hire Central American immigrants.


Predictive Distributions Via Filtered Historical Simulation For Financial Risk Management, Tyson Clark 2019 Utah State University

Predictive Distributions Via Filtered Historical Simulation For Financial Risk Management, Tyson Clark

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports

Filtered historical simulation with an underlying GARCH process can be used as a valuable tool in VaR analysis, as it derives risk estimates that are sensitive to the distributional properties of the historical data of the produced predictive density. I examine the applications to risk analysis that filtered historical simulation can provide, as well as an interpretation of the predictive density as a poor man’s Bayesian posterior distribution. The predictive density allows us to make associated probabilistic statements regarding the results for VaR analysis, giving greater measurement of risk and the ability to maintain the optimal level of risk ...


The Cross Section Of Expected Returns: Evidence From Implied Beliefs Of Active Mutual Funds Managers, Jorge Sabat 2019 Washington University in St. Louis

The Cross Section Of Expected Returns: Evidence From Implied Beliefs Of Active Mutual Funds Managers, Jorge Sabat

Doctor of Business Administration Dissertations

I develop a new test to compare the performance of asset pricing models. Using the industry allocations of active US mutual funds, I employ a structural model to estimate the implied expected returns on industry portfolios. For each asset pricing model, I use the factor loadings and the implied expected returns to calculate the implied expected factor risk premium. I compare the models based on the implied Sharpe ratio of the market portfolio. My methodology identifies the asset pricing model that not only generates the highest Sharpe ratio for the market but also best tracks the ex-ante Sharpe ratio. I ...


Disclosure Of Pending Lawsuits And Bond Terms, Yun LOU 2019 Singapore Management University

Disclosure Of Pending Lawsuits And Bond Terms, Yun Lou

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

I examine the effect of the disclosure of pendinglawsuits in 10-K/Q filings on the contractual terms of newly issued bonds. Ifind that firms’ decision to disclose pending lawsuits and the amount ofdisclosed information (i.e., the level of disclosure) have opposite effects.Specifically, firms that disclose a higher proportion of their pending lawsuitsface higher yields and are more likely to include default clauses pertaining tocourt judgments in the bond prospectuses. However, within the subsample offirms that disclose their lawsuits, I find that firms with a higher level of disclosureregarding their pending lawsuits are rewarded with lower yields. This evidencesuggests ...


The New Titans Of Wall Street: A Theoretical Framework For Passive Investors, Jill E. Fisch, Asaf Hamdani, Steven Davidoff Solomon 2019 University of Pennsylvania Law School

The New Titans Of Wall Street: A Theoretical Framework For Passive Investors, Jill E. Fisch, Asaf Hamdani, Steven Davidoff Solomon

Faculty Scholarship at Penn Law

Passive investors — ETFs and index funds — are the most important development in modern day capital markets, dictating trillions of dollars in capital flows and increasingly owning much of corporate America. Neither the business model of passive funds, nor the way that they engage with their portfolio companies, however, is well understood, and misperceptions of both have led some commentators to call for passive investors to be subject to increased regulation and even disenfranchisement. Specifically, this literature takes a narrow view both of the market in which passive investors compete to manage customer funds and of passive investors’ participation in the ...


Improving Vix Futures Forecasts Using Machine Learning Methods, James Hosker, Slobodan Djurdjevic, Hieu Nguyen, Robert Slater 2019 Southern Methodist University

Improving Vix Futures Forecasts Using Machine Learning Methods, James Hosker, Slobodan Djurdjevic, Hieu Nguyen, Robert Slater

SMU Data Science Review

The problem of forecasting market volatility is a difficult task for most fund managers. Volatility forecasts are used for risk management, alpha (risk) trading, and the reduction of trading friction. Improving the forecasts of future market volatility assists fund managers in adding or reducing risk in their portfolios as well as in increasing hedges to protect their portfolios in anticipation of a market sell-off event. Our analysis compares three existing financial models that forecast future market volatility using the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) to six machine/deep learning supervised regression methods. This analysis determines which models provide ...


Are Women Executives Hurting Firm Performance? An Examination Of Gender Diversity On Firm Risk, Performance, And Executive Compensation, Krystal Diane Sung 2019 Claremont McKenna College

Are Women Executives Hurting Firm Performance? An Examination Of Gender Diversity On Firm Risk, Performance, And Executive Compensation, Krystal Diane Sung

CMC Senior Theses

In order to assess the continuing imbalance of top executives between genders, I examine the effects of gender diversity within top management teams on firm risk, performance, and executive compensation. Capitalizing on previous analysis, I apply three unique differentiators. First, I utilize current data from 2012 to 2017 from Compustat, CRSP, and ExecuComp. Second, I provide a unique subset view on a firm and individual performance of female CEOs to examine executive compensation. Third, my scope of analysis expands to S&P Composite 1500 companies. I use separate models to estimate the effect of gender diversity on firm risk by ...


The Growth Of Socially Responsible Investing Practices In U.S. Equity Markets And Abnormal Sin Stock Returns, Jack Lori 2019 Claremont Colleges

The Growth Of Socially Responsible Investing Practices In U.S. Equity Markets And Abnormal Sin Stock Returns, Jack Lori

CMC Senior Theses

In my Senior Thesis, I explore the growth of socially responsible investing (SRI) practices in U.S. equity markets and abnormal sin stocks returns. I analyze the historical performance of socially responsible ETFs and portfolios of current sin stocks—alcohol, tobacco, gaming, and aerospace & defense stocks. I propose that as socially responsible investing practices continue to grow in U.S. equity markets, more industries will eventually be deemed sinful—such as sugary beverages, fast food/sugary food, biotech & pharmaceuticals, and tech/social media. I examine two sinful industries—alcohol and tobacco—by comparing the performance of these sinful portfolios before and after their industries were widely perceived as sinful.

I explored these topics for a few key reasons. First, socially responsible investing practices in U.S. equity markets have exploded in popularity over the last decade. Every year, we see increasing amounts of money screened for environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors. Despite its increase in popularity, many people have claimed that socially responsible investing isn’t financially responsible investing—it underperforms as compared to common benchmarks such as the S&P 500. On the other hand, existing literature has supported the claim that investing in sin stocks generates abnormal returns for investors. I hypothesize that these two areas of portfolio management are connected—as socially responsible investing practices continue to grow, more industries will eventually be widely perceived as sinful. If the sin stock anomaly does exist and portfolios of sin stocks do generate abnormal returns, individuals and institutions can benefit from an immediate and long term investment strategy by investing in these “future” sinful industries now.

Using three distinct capital asset pricing models—the Fama-French 3 Factor Model, the Fama-French 3 Factor Model plus Momentum, and the Fama-French 5 Factor Model—I come to four main conclusions. First, investing in socially responsible ETFs does not generate positive abnormal returns; in some instances, it generates statistically significant negative abnormal returns. Second, across the Fama-French 3 Factor Model, the Fama-French 3 Factor Model plus Momentum, and the Fama-French 5 Factor Model, portfolios of sin stocks from 1977-2018 generate statistically significant positive abnormal returns. Third, during the same time horizon, portfolios of future sin stocks exhibit similar levels ...


Quantifying The Announcement Effects In The U.S. Lumber Market, Zarina Mamadalievna Ismailova 2019 West Virginia University

Quantifying The Announcement Effects In The U.S. Lumber Market, Zarina Mamadalievna Ismailova

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports

The impact of public reports on price fluctuations has been widely investigated in many commodity markets, but little attention has been paid to the lumber market. In this thesis, we examine the impact of two housing market reports, namely the New Residential Construction (Housing Starts) and the New Residential Sales reports, on the U.S. lumber futures market. Our results suggest that the housing starts report does indeed affect lumber market volatility, while the New Residential sales report exerts a minor impact on lumber price volatility. Price volatility is measured by changes future contract prices for lumber. We further find ...


Uncertainty Across The Pond: An Evaluation Of Equity Market Returns And Currency Fluctuations In Reaction To Key Brexit Events, Sean Michael Andreasson 2019 University of New Hampshire, Durham

Uncertainty Across The Pond: An Evaluation Of Equity Market Returns And Currency Fluctuations In Reaction To Key Brexit Events, Sean Michael Andreasson

Honors Theses and Capstones

The citizens of the United Kingdom shocked the world on June 23rd, 2016 when they voted in favor of leaving the European Union. The 3-year aftermath of the Referendum has created a large amount of uncertainty regarding the future of the United Kingdom economy and its post-Brexit relationship with the European Union. The purpose of this research is to explore how the financial markets react to Brexit news headlines, compare the returns of European and non-European exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and currencies, identify common themes, and ultimately shed light on how investors weigh-in on the interconnectedness of the UK, the ...


Matching Fintech Advice To Participant Needs: Lessons And Challenges, Stephen L. Deschenes, P Brett Hammond 2018 Capital Group

Matching Fintech Advice To Participant Needs: Lessons And Challenges, Stephen L. Deschenes, P Brett Hammond

Wharton Pension Research Council Working Papers

The financial services industry is changing rapidly with the arrival of new economies of scale and networking effects attributable to FinTech, particularly via online or ‘robo’ advice. This chapter reviews the ‘robo-experience:’ how does it differ, if at all, from more traditional advice, and what is likely to happen next? After reviewing the goals and objectives of robo-advice, evolving advice models, who uses robo-advice, and investor behavior, we conclude that first adopters tend to be more affluent Millennial investors, as well as others seeking fast, mobile, and easy access to their finances. Nevertheless, though robo-advice has promised much, evidence is ...


Security Analysts And Capital Market Anomalies, Li GUO, Frank Weikai LI, K.C. John WEI 2018 Singapore Management University

Security Analysts And Capital Market Anomalies, Li Guo, Frank Weikai Li, K.C. John Wei

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We examine whether analysts use information in well-known stock return anomalies when making recommendations. We find results contrary to the common view that analysts are sophisticated information intermediaries who help improve market efficiency. Specifically, when analysts make more favorable recommendations to stocks classified as overvalued, these stocks tend to have particularly large negative abnormal returns ex post. Moreover, analysts whose recommendations are more aligned with anomaly signals are more skilled and elicit greater recommendation announcement returns. Our results suggest that analysts' biased recommendations could be a source of market frictions that impede the efficient correction of mispricing.


Hedge Fund Franchises, William FUNG, David HSIEH, Narayan NAIK, Melvyn TEO 2018 PI Asset Management

Hedge Fund Franchises, William Fung, David Hsieh, Narayan Naik, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We investigate the growth strategies of hedge fund firms. We find that firms with successful first funds are able to launch follow-on funds that charge higher performance fees, set more onerous redemption terms, and attract greater inflows. Motivated by the aforementioned spillover effects, first funds outperform follow-on funds, after adjusting for risk. Consistent with the agency view, greater incentive alignment moderates the performance differential between first and follow-on funds. Moreover, multiple-product firms underperform single-product firms but harvest greater fee revenues, thereby hurting investors while benefitting firm partners. Investors respond to this growth strategy by redeeming from first funds of firms ...


Sensation Seeking And Hedge Funds, Stephen BROWN, Yan LU, Sugata RAY, Song Wee Melvyn TEO 2018 Singapore Management University

Sensation Seeking And Hedge Funds, Stephen Brown, Yan Lu, Sugata Ray, Song Wee Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We show that motivated by sensation seeking, hedge fund managers who own powerful sports cars take on more investment risk but do not deliver higher returns, resulting in lower Sharpe ratios, information ratios, and alphas. Moreover, sensation-seeking managers trade more frequently, actively, and unconventionally, and prefer lottery-like stocks. We show further that some investors are themselves susceptible to sensation seeking and that sensation-seeking investors fuel the demand for sensation-seeking managers. While investors perceive sensation seekers to be less competent, they do not fully appreciate the superior investment skills of sensation-avoiding fund managers.


Ursinus College Student-Managed Investment Fund Prospectus, Fall 2018, Paul Cottam, Shelby Boyle, Tim Carroll, Samantha Crossan, Joseph Heasley, Jake Kang, Thomas Kelly, Chris Moreno, Johnathan Myers, Steve Palis, Daan Slaats, Parker Wolf, Chenyu Yin 2018 Ursinus College

Ursinus College Student-Managed Investment Fund Prospectus, Fall 2018, Paul Cottam, Shelby Boyle, Tim Carroll, Samantha Crossan, Joseph Heasley, Jake Kang, Thomas Kelly, Chris Moreno, Johnathan Myers, Steve Palis, Daan Slaats, Parker Wolf, Chenyu Yin

Ursinus Student-Managed Investment Fund Prospectus

This prospectus contains a performance summary for previous stocks and endowment funds as well as strategy and analysis for the following new stocks in the managed fund: American Woodmark Corporation, Comtech Telecommunications Corp. and LGL Group, Inc.


Ursinus College Student-Managed Investment Fund Newsletter, Fall 2018, Isaac Abrams, Liam Close, Thomas Reinhart, Daan Slaats 2018 Ursinus College

Ursinus College Student-Managed Investment Fund Newsletter, Fall 2018, Isaac Abrams, Liam Close, Thomas Reinhart, Daan Slaats

Investment Fund Newsletter

Inside this issue:

What's New?

Brief History of Ursinus

What our Newest Students are Saying

What are "They" Saying?

2018 Fund Performance

Allianz Field Trip

Looking Forward


Financial Knowledge And Portfolio Complexity In Singapore, Seng Kee Benedict KOH, Olivia S. MITCHELL, Susann ROHWEDDER 2018 Singapore Management University

Financial Knowledge And Portfolio Complexity In Singapore, Seng Kee Benedict Koh, Olivia S. Mitchell, Susann Rohwedder

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Financial literacy in Singapore has not been analyzed in much detail, despite the fact that this is one of the world’s most rapidly aging nations. Using the Singapore Life Panel®, we explore older Singaporeans’ levels of financial knowledge and compare them to those observed in the United States. We assess portfolio complexity for these older households, to examine how financial literacy is related to outcomes of interest. We show that older Singaporeans’ levels of financial literacy are comparable overall to those in the United States, even though older Singaporeans score slightly lower on some dimensions (knowledge of interest and ...


Cryptocurrencies: Their Current Validity And Future As Currency And As A Part Of An Investment Strategy, Austin R. Johnson 2018 University of South Carolina

Cryptocurrencies: Their Current Validity And Future As Currency And As A Part Of An Investment Strategy, Austin R. Johnson

Senior Theses

This paper examines the current and future prospects of cryptocurrencies with a focus on the most well-known and highest valued cryptocurrency, Bitcoin. Specifically, it will address how Bitcoin can be utilized as a currency and as part of an investment strategy and whether its utilization makes financial sense now and will in the future. The paper showcases the past behavior of Bitcoin, how the Bitcoin system functions, how Bitcoin acts as a currency, how Bitcoin can be used as an investment asset, and why it will continue to be employed as such in the future. This paper will show that ...


Stock Buyback Announcements: An Examination Of Abnormal Returns In Stock Price & Credit Default Swaps For S&P100 Companies, Alan L. DelFavero 2018 Sacred Heart University

Stock Buyback Announcements: An Examination Of Abnormal Returns In Stock Price & Credit Default Swaps For S&P100 Companies, Alan L. Delfavero

Doctoral Dissertations

This event study examines the short-run effect of stock buyback announcements on stock price and credit default swaps (CDS) exclusively for mega capitalization S&P100 companies. The research sample consists of 53 S&P100 companies and includes 133 buyback announcement events occurring between September 2011 and May 2018. The study utilizes the market model to estimate expected returns and to compute abnormal returns (AR) for equity and abnormal change (AC) in CDS. Based on an initial analysis, it’s determined that there is a statistically significant AR and cumulative abnormal return (CAR) for stock price, and a significant AC in ...


Monitoring From Afar: Do Foreign Institutional Investors Deter Insider Trading?, Claire Yurong HONG, Frank Weikai LI, Qifei ZHU 2018 Singapore Management University

Monitoring From Afar: Do Foreign Institutional Investors Deter Insider Trading?, Claire Yurong Hong, Frank Weikai Li, Qifei Zhu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper examines the disciplinary effect of foreign institutional investors on opportunistic insider trading. Using a novel global insider trading data set containing 35,557 firms from 26 countries over the period 2000-2015, we find that greater foreign institutional ownership significantly reduces the profitability of insider trading, above and beyond the effect of domestic institutional ownership. Using the exogenous variation in foreign institutional ownership induced by MSCI index inclusion, we show that the effect is causal. The impact of foreign investors is stronger in countries with weak insider trading regulations and poor institutional environments, and operates mainly through the monitoring ...


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